Cincinnati signed Paddack on May 13 because the rotation was running out of arms. Rhett Lowder hit the IL, Hunter Greene is still parked on the 60-day, and Brandon Williamson got bumped to the 60 too. Paddack carries a 7.63 ERA and an 0-5 record from his Marlins stint, and now he gets Progressive Field as his welcome mat.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) took batting practice on the field Friday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong RP — Armstrong (groin) allowed one run on one hit and one walk while striking out two over one inning for Double-A Akron on Tuesday.
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters RP — Walters (lat) was returned from his rehab assignment due to a viral illness, MLB.com reports.
On the other side is Joey Cantillo, who has quietly been one of the better stories in Cleveland's rotation. He's 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA, and his last outing was 5 innings of 1-run ball against the Royals. He's been even sharper at home this year, which is the kind of trend you don't love to see when you're sending out a guy making his organizational debut.
The Reds aren't a lost cause at the plate — they're 24-21, sitting in the same neighborhood as Cleveland, and Elly De La Cruz is doing Elly things. Eugenio Suarez took BP on the field Friday, which is the first encouraging sign on the third base situation in a few weeks. But the lineup is going to have to carry weight today, because the pitching matchup on paper is a mismatch.
The market knows it. Cleveland is a -165 favorite at Pinnacle with the run line sitting at -1.5. The books are also split on the total — Pinnacle has it at 8.5, DraftKings shaded it down to 7.5, which tells you what oddsmakers think of Paddack going more than 4 or 5 innings. The DK handle on the Guardians moneyline is sitting right at 50/50 with bets leaning home, so there's no public stampede here, just quiet confidence.
The honest read: Paddack is being asked to plug a hole the Reds couldn't fix from within, and his first impression comes against a lefty who's been mowing through hitters at home. If Cincinnati wants this one, they probably need to chase Cantillo early and survive whatever Paddack gives them. Anything resembling a quality start would be a bonus.