Cincinnati and Cleveland split the first 2 games of this Ohio Cup set — Reds took the opener 7-6 behind an Andrew Abbott gem, then the Guardians punched back 7-4 on an Angel Martinez go-ahead 2-run shot Saturday. Now it's a 12:40 first pitch with the series on the line.
The Reds are running out a rotation duct-taped together. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day, Rhett Lowder is still rehabbing a shoulder, and Brandon Williamson got pushed to the 60-day this month. Brady Singer (5.79 ERA) gets the ball, and he's coming off back-to-back ugly ones — 4 runs in 3.1 against the Pirates after a rain delay, then 3 solo homers in 3.2 against the Nationals while taking a 107 mph comebacker off the foot. He says he's fine. The line says Cleveland is -159, which suggests the market isn't fully convinced.
Gavin Williams, on the other hand, has been the version of himself Cleveland always hoped existed. He's leading MLB in strikeouts, he carved up the Rays for 7.2 innings of 1-run, 9-K, 0-walk ball, and the walk rate that drowned him last year is way down. Stephen Vogt called the Tampa start the best he's ever seen from him. That's the pitching gap in this one — a 3.74 ERA guy peaking versus a 5.79 ERA guy hoping his foot holds up.
Sharp money on the home side and a fair chunk of public money there too — 79% of DK spread handle on Cleveland -1.5, 72% of moneyline handle on the Guardians. The total sits at 8.5 with the over getting 80% of the handle, which makes sense if you've seen Singer pitch lately but feels aggressive against Williams. Pinnacle has the under shaded slightly, which is usually the side I trust over public sentiment.
- Day-To-DayJose Trevino C — Trevino was removed from Saturday's game against the Guardians due to a left hamstring injury, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) took batting practice on the field Friday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters RP — Walters (lat) resumed his rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus on May 12, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong RP — Armstrong (groin) allowed one run on one hit and one walk while striking out two over one inning for Double-A Akron on Tuesday.
Cincinnati is also dealing with a Jose Trevino hamstring tweak from Saturday's game on top of the Eugenio Suarez oblique absence, so the lineup behind Singer isn't at full strength either. Cleveland is mostly healthy beyond Gabriel Arias at short. Getaway-day, rubber game, ace versus a guy throwing on a banged-up foot — if you're picking a side, the case for the Guardians basically writes itself. The case against is that this is baseball and Singer has had stretches where the slider works.