The Reds are 28-25 and trending the right way. The Mets are 22-32 and somehow getting more banged-up by the day. Wednesday's middle game in Queens has Chase Burns on the bump for Cincinnati, which is roughly the last thing a battered Mets lineup wants to see right now.
Burns is the story of the National League. The 23-year-old righty is 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA and just shoved 6 innings of 1-run, 9-strikeout, 0-walk ball at the Phillies in his last start. Jeff Passan has already floated him as a Cy Young pick over Paul Skenes. With Hunter Greene still on the 60-day IL, Burns has flat-out taken the ace job and run with it.
David Peterson draws the short straw of trying to match him. The lefty is 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA and got a win last time out against the Nationals, but the line — 5 IP, 3 K, 3 BB — is the kind of tightrope that gets ugly fast against a Reds lineup that just hung a 7-spot on this same staff Monday night.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayMike Tauchman RF — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayGrae Kessinger 3B — no
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILTyrone Taylor CF — Taylor (hip) will be sent for an MRI, but the team expects that he'll require a stint on the injured list, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Alvarez C — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday that Alvarez (knee) has already resumed hitting and could return well before his projected eight-week timetable, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
And good lord, the Mets injury list. Francisco Lindor is on the IL with a calf strain after the team had already lost a 12-game streak earlier this month. Francisco Alvarez (knee), Jorge Polanco (Achilles), Luis Robert Jr. (back), and now Tyrone Taylor (hip, headed for an MRI) are all out. Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes are gone from the rotation. That is 4 of the Opening Day regulars plus two arms — there is barely a Mets team left to put on the field.
The market sees it the way your eyes do. Cincy is a -115 favorite on the road, and the -1.5 runline is paying +149 at Pinnacle because public DK money is still piling onto the Mets at home (78% of moneyline bets on the Reds vs. 89% of the handle — sharp side, not square). Total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced to -116, which tracks with Burns on the mound. No play screams +EV here, but if you have to pick a side, the runline number is the most interesting one on the board.
Bottom line: Reds are healthier, hotter, and running their best pitcher out there against a Mets team that is missing its captain, its catcher, its first baseman, and now possibly its center fielder. Citi Field is going to be a quiet place around 9pm.