The Reds and Phillies meet at 24-23 apiece, but the vibes couldn't be more different. Philly has won 4 of its last 5 under Don Mattingly, who took over for Rob Thomson in late April when the team was buried at 9-19. Cincinnati is 2-3 in its last 5 and has been a wreck on the road.
On paper the pitching matchup screams runs. Nick Lodolo (0-1, 8.68) is making just his second start of the year after missing six weeks with a blister on his left index finger. The debut against Houston was a 5.1-inning, 4-run outing in a 10-0 loss — Lodolo himself liked the spin, Terry Francona signed off, but the line is the line.
Andrew Painter (1-4, 6.21) is the other half of this ERA stew. The top prospect's season has been bumpy — he got shelled for 8 earned in 3.2 against the A's earlier this month and has surrendered a homer in 4 straight starts. The encouraging part: his last time out he held the Red Sox to 1 run on 4 hits over 5 innings with zero walks. Mattingly keeps insisting he's not worried.
Pinnacle has the Phillies at -117 on the moneyline, which lines up with a home team that's playing its best baseball of the season against a club that's lost 10 of its last 11 on the road. The total sitting at 10 is the tell — the market does not trust either starter to get deep without damage.
Cincinnati is also patching things together. Eugenio Suarez (oblique) and Jose Trevino (hamstring) are on the IL, and the rotation is still without Hunter Greene and Rhett Lowder. Philly is healthier outside of a banged-up bullpen, which matters in a game that could turn into a relay race after the 5th.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — The Reds placed Trevino (hamstring) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) took batting practice on the field Friday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop RP — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Bottom line: Painter at home with a clean last start gives you a reason to lean Phillies, but two ERAs in the 6s and 8s pointed at each other usually ends one way. Over 10 has a pulse.