Both teams sit at 25-24. Both teams have spent the last 48 hours punching each other in the mouth. The Phillies took Monday 5-4 on a Bryson Stott eighth-inning shot, then Chase Burns walked into Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday and punched out 9 in a 4-1 Reds win. Series tied, getaway day, daytime start, and a pitching matchup that could not be more lopsided on paper.
Aaron Nola is the story Philly does not want to keep talking about. He carries a 5.91 ERA into this start with a 1.55 WHIP, and per his last write-up he has been tagged for 5+ runs in 3 of his last 5 outings. He had the one clean game against Miami this month — 6 scoreless — but otherwise it has been the worst stretch of his career chained onto last year's worst stretch of his career. At 12:05 in May, with the rotation already thin, the Phillies need him to stop the bleeding.
On the other side, Andrew Abbott has quietly figured something out. His season ERA still reads 4.21, but that's the residue of an ugly April. Over his last 3 starts he has dropped his ERA by more than 2 runs, posting a 14:7 K:BB and just 2 runs allowed across 17.2 innings. The Reds have lived on rotation duct tape with Hunter Greene on the 60-day and Rhett Lowder still working back, so Abbott trending up is the kind of thing that matters in May and in October.
Pinnacle has the Phillies as -142 home favorites with a 10-run total, but DraftKings is sitting at 8.5 — which tells you the market is split on whether Nola can keep this thing in the realm of normal scoring. The model EVs are negative across the board, so this is not a screaming bet either direction. It's a coin flip with a Nola-shaped tail risk.
Kyle Schwarber being a game-time call again is the other wrinkle. He has missed the first two games of the series with an illness, listed as day-to-day and reportedly feeling "a little better" but not better enough. Lose Schwarber, lose Trevino-ish offensive help on the Reds side too (Trevino is out 3-4 weeks with a Grade 1 hamstring), and you have two lineups missing pieces in a getaway-day matinee. Bohm, Harper, and Stott will need to do the heavy lifting if Schwarber sits a third straight.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayKyle Schwarber DH — Schwarber (illness) remains out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Reds.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop RP — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Pick: lean Reds if Abbott's last 3 starts are who he is now, lean Phillies if Nola can steal 5 innings of 3-run ball. The market is begging you not to commit. Honestly, the smarter play is just to watch — this one has rubber-match energy and a real chance of breaking the over before the 7th.