Chase Burns (9-1, 2.00 ERA) draws Jared Jones (1-1, 5.75 ERA) in the middle game of this three-game set at PNC Park, first pitch 4:05 PM ET. On paper, this is as clean a pitching mismatch as you'll find anywhere in baseball this weekend.
Burns is on an absolute run — 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 5 starts, 102 strikeouts on the season, and reportedly the first Reds pitcher to reel off 8 consecutive winning decisions since Tom Browning in 1989. He already beat Pittsburgh on March 30 earlier this year, throwing 5 scoreless innings in the series opener. Jones is a different story: he's working his way back from UCL surgery and took a comebacker off his right elbow in his last start June 21 against Colorado. The Pirates confirmed he'd take the ball Saturday, but he's listed day-to-day and has posted a 5.75 ERA across 5 post-surgery starts — not a guy you'd pick to neutralize a lineup with a win over Skenes in its legs.
Cincinnati arrives riding a confidence jolt. Noelvi Marte came off the bench Friday night and hit a tiebreaking 2-run homer in the eighth to cap a 6-4 win — over Paul Skenes, who had never lost to the Reds before that game. The Reds had dropped 3 straight to Milwaukee before this trip, getting outscored 10-6 while hitting .219 as a team. A win over Pittsburgh's best pitcher in a comeback fashion is exactly what a 38-42 team needs to carry into a spot where they have their own ace going. Pittsburgh, sitting right at .500 at 41-41, had rattled off 2 straight wins over Seattle before absorbing that gut punch Friday.
- Day-To-DayBlake Dunn CF — Dunn was removed from Friday's game against the Pirates with right elbow discomfort, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Lodolo SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lodolo (wrist) "showed up pretty good" when he reported to the ballpark Wednesday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILTony Santillan RP — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Jones SP — no
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
- Day-To-DayMitch Jebb LF
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz 1B — The Pirates placed Horwitz on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left hamstring strain.
- 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz CF — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
Blake Dunn left Friday's game with right elbow discomfort and is day-to-day for Saturday — a blow for a Cincinnati outfield that was already shorthanded. Pittsburgh is without Oneil Cruz (hand, 4-6 week recovery) and Spencer Horwitz (hamstring). Both rosters are bleeding bodies, but the Reds' injuries are deeper in the rotation — Greene on the 60-day, Lodolo day-to-day, Williamson out for months — while Pittsburgh's rotation concern Saturday is Jones himself. If his elbow limits him through 3 or 4 innings, the Pirates' bullpen will see action earlier than anyone in Pittsburgh wants.
Burns is the kind of starter who doesn't care who's in the other dugout. His upper-90s fastball and a slider that opponents haven't cracked make him the Reds' answer to almost any problem, and he's been the answer all season. Jones facing a lineup that just roughed up Skenes — while pitching through a right elbow scare — is a rough ask. The Reds need series wins to stay in the NL Central conversation. With Burns going on Saturday afternoon, this is a game Cincinnati should take.