Michael Lorenzen vs. Zac Gallen on paper looks like a normal big-league pitching matchup. It is not. Lorenzen is carrying a 7.03 ERA into Phoenix and is reportedly sitting on a 9.20 ERA in May with more walks (8) than you'd like to see paired with just 12 strikeouts. Gallen has been up-and-down, but his last quality start against the Giants — 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 whiffs — was the most encouraging thing he's done since the calendar flipped.
Arizona has been the better team and looks the part. They've ripped off 4 wins in their last 5 and got a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. home run in Sunday's 8-6 win over this same Rockies club. Colorado, meanwhile, just got smoked 10-0 by the Rangers earlier in the week — the same game where Brenton Doyle picked up the oblique contusion that has him out of the lineup. When your CF is hurt, your DH (Kris Bryant) is on the 60-day, and your LF (Mickey Moniak) is also down, the lineup card starts looking thin in a hurry.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILMickey Moniak LF — Moniak is not in the starting lineup Thursday night against Arizona.
- 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle CF — The Rockies announced that Doyle is considered day-to-day after suffering a left oblique contusion during Tuesday's 10-0 loss to the Rangers, Manny Randhawa of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJordan Beck LF — Beck went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI on Saturday against Atlanta.
- 15-Day-ILChase Dollander SP — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILVictor Vodnik RP — Vodnik (1-2) picked up the win in Friday's 9-7 extra-innings victory over the Phillies, walking one and striking out two over two scoreless, no-hit innings.
- Day-To-DayLourdes Gurriel Jr. LF — Gurriel went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI in Sunday's 8-6 win over Colorado.
- Day-To-DayDerek Law RP — no
- Day-To-DaySpencer Giesting SP
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann C — Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that McCann (quad) will likely be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana suffered a setback with his right adductor strain Sunday while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk RP — Puk (elbow) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Tuesday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) is expected to begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
The market sees it the way you'd expect. Arizona is a -171 favorite at Pinnacle, sitting on a 61.5% fair win probability. The interesting wrinkle is on the moneyline: DraftKings is hanging the Rockies at +192 while the fair line is closer to +153, which is why the model flags a massive EV edge on the Colorado side. 90% of DK bets are still piling on Arizona, because of course they are — you're being asked to lay -237 on a team starting Zac Gallen, which is a different conversation.
The total sits at 9 and that feels honest. Lorenzen's road ERA is reportedly a much more livable 4.26 versus his 10.03 mark in Denver, so Chase Field at least removes the altitude horror show from the equation. But Arizona has been the hottest hitting team in baseball over the last week by some measures, and Colorado's bullpen is patched together with Vodnik, Herget, and a long list of arms on the IL behind them.
The honest read: Diamondbacks should win this game and probably cover the run line at -1.5, given the gap in pitching and the home form. The only reason to touch the Rockies is the moneyline number, and even that's a bet on the price, not the team. Lorenzen needs to figure something out, and Saturday in Phoenix is a tough place to start.