Arizona has been the better team and looks the part. They've ripped off 4 wins in their last 5 and got a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. home run in Sunday's 8-6 win over this same Rockies club. Colorado, meanwhile, just got smoked 10-0 by the Rangers earlier in the week — the same game where Brenton Doyle picked up the oblique contusion that has him out of the lineup. When your CF is hurt, your DH (Kris Bryant) is on the 60-day, and your LF (Mickey Moniak) is also down, the lineup card starts looking thin in a hurry.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo (RP) — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCase Williams (SP) — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas (CF) — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILMickey Moniak (LF) — Moniak is not in the starting lineup Thursday night against Arizona.05/23
- 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle (CF) — The Rockies announced that Doyle is considered day-to-day after suffering a left oblique contusion during Tuesday's 10-0 loss to the Rangers, Manny Randhawa of MLB.com reports.05/21
- 10-Day-ILJordan Beck (LF) — Beck went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI on Saturday against Atlanta.05/18
- 15-Day-ILChase Dollander (SP) — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILVictor Vodnik (RP) — Vodnik (1-2) picked up the win in Friday's 9-7 extra-innings victory over the Phillies, walking one and striking out two over two scoreless, no-hit innings.05/20
- 15-Day-ILRyan Feltner (SP) — Feltner (elbow) struck out four and allowed three hits and no walks over 3.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start Tuesday with Double-A Hartford.05/20
- 15-Day-ILJimmy Herget (RP) — The Rockies reinstated Herget (personal) from the bereavement list Tuesday.05/14
- 60-Day-ILRJ Petit (RP) — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown (SP) — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl (RP) — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKris Bryant (DH) — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJeff Criswell (RP) — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.05/08
- Day-To-DayLourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Gurriel went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI in Sunday's 8-6 win over Colorado.05/23
- Day-To-DayDerek Law (RP) — no05/21
- Day-To-DaySpencer Giesting (SP)
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that McCann (quad) will likely be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana suffered a setback with his right adductor strain Sunday while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/11
- OutA.J. Vukovich (CF) — Vukovich is slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 home runs, 20 steals on 29 attempts and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 115 games for Double-A Amarillo.05/08
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Tuesday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) is expected to begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Monday that Lawlar has resumed light baseball activities after a CT scan showed his fractured right wrist is healing well, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.05/18
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith (1B) — Smith (elbow ) has begun a throwing program, MLB.com reports.05/16
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
The market sees it the way you'd expect. Arizona is a -171 favorite at Pinnacle, sitting on a 61.5% fair win probability. The interesting wrinkle is on the moneyline: DraftKings is hanging the Rockies at +192 while the fair line is closer to +153, which is why the model flags a massive EV edge on the Colorado side. 90% of DK bets are still piling on Arizona, because of course they are — you're being asked to lay -237 on a team starting Zac Gallen, which is a different conversation.
The total sits at 9 and that feels honest. Lorenzen's road ERA is reportedly a much more livable 4.26 versus his 10.03 mark in Denver, so Chase Field at least removes the altitude horror show from the equation. But Arizona has been the hottest hitting team in baseball over the last week by some measures, and Colorado's bullpen is patched together with Vodnik, Herget, and a long list of arms on the IL behind them.
The honest read: Diamondbacks should win this game and probably cover the run line at -1.5, given the gap in pitching and the home form. The only reason to touch the Rockies is the moneyline number, and even that's a bet on the price, not the team. Lorenzen needs to figure something out, and Saturday in Phoenix is a tough place to start.