After clawing out of a 10-game April losing streak, the Phillies look like the Phillies again — the lineup is producing, the rotation is rounding into form, and Bryson Stott just dropped a 3-run shot in a 7-2 win over Miami last weekend. Now they get a Rockies team that's 6 games into a losing streak and hasn't picked up a W since April flipped to May.
The pitching matchup is where it gets interesting. Chase Dollander has been the one bright spot in Denver — 7 scoreless with 7 punchouts at Citi Field on April 26, 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Padres before that. The kid throws strikes and trusts his fastball. Jesús Luzardo, meanwhile, is the walking definition of "his ERA lies." The 5.09 looks ugly, but he's sitting on a 2.27 FIP and a 3.16 xERA. The actual problem: he's been borderline unhittable with the bases empty and a disaster with runners on, where his ERA balloons past 24.
The Rockies' issues go beyond Dollander's day. Colorado's pitching staff has run an 8.20 ERA in May, second-worst in baseball, and opponents are slashing .305/.374/.576 against them. They've also left 32 men on base across 4 losses. It is hard to win games when you can't pitch and can't cash runners. Kris Bryant is still on the 60-day IL with the chronic back issues that limited him to 11 games last year, and there's no firm timeline.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — no
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — no
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — no
- 15-Day-ILRyan Feltner SP — no
- 60-Day-ILRJ Petit RP — no
- 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown SP — no
- 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl RP — no
- 60-Day-ILKris Bryant DH — no
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — no
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — no
- Day-To-DayChristian McGowan RP — no
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — no
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — no
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — no
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — no
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — no
Philly is dealing with its own absence in center, where Johan Rojas is serving the 80-game PED suspension that wiped out his 2026 (and his postseason eligibility). The bullpen is also a little thin with Kyle Backhus and Zach Pop both on the 15-day IL. None of that should matter much against a Rockies offense that went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position in its last loss.
The market agrees the Phillies should win this — they're a -208 home favorite — but the EV across the board is negative, which means the books have it priced clean. The total sits at 7.5, with 72% of DK bets pounding the over. With Dollander throwing the way he is, that one's not a freebie. If you're betting this, the run line on Philly at +108 is the only number that gives you any real value, and even that comes with the standard Luzardo-with-runners-on warning label.