The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 since Don Mattingly took over the dugout, and the lineup just walked Aaron Nola out to his best start of the year on Monday — 6 innings, 0 runs, 5 strikeouts against the Marlins. He's been the punching bag of the rotation through April, but that line is the first sign the 5.06 ERA might start sliding the right direction.
Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland, who only just came back from a left-shoulder IL stint. The 5.04 ERA tells you what April looked like, but in his return last time out he gave up 1 run on 3 hits over 6.1 against Houston. He's the kind of crafty lefty who can carve a lineup or get punted in the 3rd — Citizens Bank Park rarely splits the difference.
Philly is sitting -184 at home and that price is doing a lot of telling. The DK splits show 86% of the moneyline handle on the Phillies, and the EV on every option here is negative — meaning the market is sharp and there's no obvious edge sitting on the board. The total at 8.5 with -101/-112 juice is about as neutral as a baseball total gets.
The injury sheets are where this game gets interesting. The Rockies are still without Kris Bryant (back) and have a parade of arms on the 60-day, which is half the reason the bullpen has been a sieve. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost reliever Daniel Robert under genuinely scary circumstances — a cardiac incident before a bullpen — and Zach Pop and Kyle Backhus are both shelved.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Feltner SP — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRJ Petit RP — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown SP — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
- 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl RP — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILKris Bryant DH — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayChristian McGowan RP — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
Mickey Moniak is the bat to track for Colorado — he's hitting .315 and slugging .694, which is borderline cartoonish, and he gets to feast on whatever Nola leaves up. For the Phillies, Bryce Harper is doing Bryce Harper things at .282/.380/.549. Two teams under .500, but the matchup on paper screams Philly cover. The market agrees, which is usually right up until it isn't.