Philadelphia and Colorado split the first 2 games of this set — the Rockies took Friday 9-7 in 11 innings, the Phillies bounced back Saturday 9-3 — so this is the decider. First pitch is a 12:35 PM getaway, and Cristopher Sánchez gets the ball coming off arguably the best start of his career: 8 scoreless, 10 K's, 3 hits against Oakland on May 5. He's sitting on a 2.42 ERA. The Rockies' lineup is going to have to earn it.
The market sees this exactly how you'd expect — Phillies a heavy -305 home favorite at Pinnacle, with DK shading down to -192 and pulling 82% of moneyline tickets. Total sits at 8.5. None of the EVs are positive, so this is one of those games where the right side is whichever team you actually want to watch.
The Rockies counter with Tomoyuki Sugano, who has quietly been the one bright spot on Colorado's staff. He's 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA, took five no-hit innings into the 6th against the Mets in his last start before unraveling for 4 runs, and — fun wrinkle — already beat the Phillies once this year, going 6 innings of 1-run ball at Coors back on April 5. The underlying numbers (4.95 FIP) suggest some regression is loitering, but he's been a problem when he's locating.
Colorado is 16-24 and has dropped 8 of its last 11, with no series win since sweeping the Mets in late April. Philly under interim manager Don Mattingly is 18-22 but trending up — Bryce Harper just went 3-for-4 with 2 homers in Tuesday's 9-1 win over the A's, and he's listed day-to-day but very much active. The Rockies, meanwhile, are without Kris Bryant (back, 60-day IL) and have a thinned-out bullpen between Jeff Criswell, Ryan Feltner, and Jimmy Herget all unavailable.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
- BereavementJimmy Herget RP — The Rockies moved Herget (personal) to the bereavement/family medical emergency list Saturday.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Feltner SP — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRJ Petit RP — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown SP — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
- 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl RP — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayBryce Harper 1B — Harper went 3-for-4 with a walk, two home runs, three runs scored and three RBI in Tuesday's 9-1 win over the A's.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayChristian McGowan RP — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
The setup is clean: an ace lefty at home, a road team that can't string series wins together, and a noon start that tends to favor whoever's already locked in. Sánchez gets deep into games — he's pitched into the 6th in all but one start this year — which keeps a battered Phillies pen out of trouble. Sugano has to be perfect to flip this one. The number reflects that.