Keller has quietly turned into the steady hand behind Skenes. He shut down the Reds for 7 innings of 1-run ball on May 1, then gave the Pirates 6 innings of 2-run ball in a 4-2 win at Chase Field on May 7. A 2.87 ERA at 4-1 is not a fluke run, it's eight starts of him pitching like a guy who finally trusts his stuff.
Jose Quintana counters, and to his credit he's been the one functional thing about Colorado's rotation. He posted a 2.00 ERA across 27 innings in his stretch back from a hamstring strain, and the 3.90 ERA on his ledger is dragged down by earlier work. Crafty lefty at sea level versus a Pittsburgh lineup that just got no-hit for 6 innings - this game could die in the 70s on the radar gun.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo (RP) — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCase Williams (SP) — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas (CF) — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRyan Feltner (SP) — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRJ Petit (RP) — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown (SP) — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl (RP) — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKris Bryant (DH) — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJeff Criswell (RP) — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher (RF) — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum (LF) — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) threw four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks while striking out four in a rehab appearance with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, per MLB.com.05/13
The Rockies' IL is the whole story of the season. Kris Bryant still can't do baseball activities, Ryan Feltner is only now getting to a bullpen, and the bullpen depth has been gutted - Petit, Ohl, and Criswell all on the 60-day. Pittsburgh isn't healthy either with Jared Jones rehabbing and Joey Bart banged up, but at 23-19 they can afford the shorthandedness in a way a 16-26 club simply cannot.
The market reflects all of the above. Pittsburgh is a heavy -180 at Pinnacle with DK's public money jamming the home side at 88% of bets. The total split is the more interesting tell - books disagree on the line (Pinnacle 8.5, DK 7.5) with two veteran command guys on the mound. If you trust Keller's form and Quintana keeping it on the carpet, the under sets up cleaner than chasing a chalky Pirates moneyline.