Lorenzen and Mike Paredes combine for a 2-9 record heading into Saturday's first pitch, which tells you the kind of game this might be. Lorenzen has been one of the worst starters in baseball in 2026 — 67 hits allowed through mid-June, the most in the majors — while Paredes is a 25-year-old who wasn't in Minnesota's major league camp this spring and made his MLB debut on May 31. He's in the rotation because Pablo Lopez, David Festa, Bailey Ober, and Mick Abel are all sidelined. The market has processed all of this accordingly, with the Twins a clear home favorite.
One number worth flagging before you completely write off Lorenzen: he owns a 2-1 record and 2.86 ERA in 7 career appearances against Minnesota. Small sample, but it's real, and it's the only thing Colorado's dugout can point to heading into Saturday. His last start was 5.1 innings, 4 earned, 7 hits against Pittsburgh. Paredes gave up 2 earned in 5 innings against Arizona in his previous outing — functional, not dominant. Neither of these guys is going 7 innings. This game comes down to which bullpen holds.
Minnesota's recent stretch has been rough by any measure. The Dodgers came into Target Field and ran through 3 games, outscoring the Twins 18-7 in the series — including a 12-3 blowout in the middle game. Friday's 9-8 win over Colorado was the kind of sloppy, hard-fought result a team grabs when it needs to stop a skid. Byron Buxton continues to be the engine: 25 home runs, a .927 OPS, and earlier this season he passed Max Kepler as Target Field's all-time home run leader. When the rotation is cobbled together from Triple-A recalls, Buxton's ceiling is what keeps Minnesota competitive night to night.
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle CF — Doyle (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILJordan Beck LF — Beck (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
- 15-Day-ILJaden Hill RP — The Rockies placed Hill on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with right shoulder tendinitis.
- 15-Day-ILTanner Gordon RP — Gordon (hip) is slated to make a rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque on Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILBlas Castano RP — Castano was called up from Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday.
- Day-To-DayKaelen Culpepper SS — Culpepper was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday with a left hip strain, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRicardo Olivar C — Triple-A St. Paul transferred Olivar from the 7-day injured list to the 60-day IL on June 4 while he recovers from a right knee sprain, Twins writer Brandon Warne reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers (hand) was spotted taking swings in the batting cage and catching a bullpen session Monday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILBailey Ober SP — Ober (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday of approximately 40 pitches, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Sands underwent an MRI on Friday that showed healing in his injured forearm, though inflammation was still present, MLB.com reports.
The Rockies' injury situation has gone from manageable to genuinely dire. Welinton Herrera is done for the season with a torn UCL. Chase Dollander just had internal brace surgery on his elbow. RJ Petit, Pierson Ohl, Jaden Hill, and Tanner Gordon are all unavailable in the bullpen. Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck are both on rehab assignments in Triple-A. Kris Bryant hasn't touched a bat in baseball activities in weeks. The one bright spot in this roster is rookie TJ Rumfield, who entered the weekend on a 9-game hitting streak, batting .342 with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 10 games. If Colorado keeps this interesting, it runs through him.