The headline is Michael Wacha walking back into Busch Stadium to face the franchise that drafted him in 2012. He's been the best version of himself this year at 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA, which is a problem for a Cardinals lineup that hasn't exactly been mashing. On the other side, Dustin May's 4.85 ERA looks ugly, but his last 6 starts tell a different story — 2.55 ERA with 5 quality starts per the FanDuel preview. The matchup is sneakier than the season-long numbers suggest.
The injury report is where this thing tilts. The Royals are missing Cole Ragans, Carlos Estevez, Bailey Falter, James McArthur and Alec Marsh — basically half a pitching staff. Jonathan India is done for the year after labrum surgery. The Cardinals have their own problems with Ramon Urias on the IL and Packy Naughton heading for UCL surgery, but Lars Nootbaar is finally starting a rehab assignment, which is the closest thing to good news either side has gotten in a week.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli (SP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz (2B) — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.05/08
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero (RP) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said Tuesday that Ragans (elbow) played catch two of the past three days and remains day-to-day, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILBailey Falter (RP) — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — The Royals transferred McArthur (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton (RP) — Naughton will undergo surgery next week to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/14
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse (SP) — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos (RP) — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.05/08
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson (RP) — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — The Cardinals placed Urias on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with right elbow lateral epicondylitis.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatt Pushard (RP) — The Cardinals must decide soon whether to return Pushard (knee) to the active roster or expose the Rule 5 pick to waivers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar (LF) — Nootbaar (heels) will begin a rehab assignment over the weekend, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/12
Pinnacle has this thing essentially a coin flip — Cards -110, Royals -100 — with a total of 8.5. That feels about right. Wacha's ceiling is high enough to steal a road game, but the Royals have a 6-15 record away from Kauffman per the SportsGrid preview, and you have to actually score runs to win baseball games. Kansas City has not been doing that.
Lean: Wacha keeps it close, Royals bullpen gives it back in the 7th, Cards win a tight one. But if you're betting the under at 8.5, you're not crazy — these are two of the duller offenses in the league right now and both starters are pitching well.