Luinder Avila (0-2, 5.06) draws Chase Burns (7-1, 1.96) for first pitch at 6:10 PM CT, and on paper it's about as lopsided as a non-Coors weeknight matchup gets. Pinnacle has the Reds at -211 with the total parked at 8.5 — the market's basically asking if the Royals can scratch out 2 runs against a guy who hasn't given up more than 2 earned in a start all month.
Burns is the story here. The same kid who went 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA as a rookie last year has turned into the closest thing the NL has to an ace through two months — a 0.72 ERA in May, 25 strikeouts to 6 walks across 25 innings, and quality starts in every May outing. Avila, meanwhile, hasn't started a big-league game since April 4, when the Brewers tagged him for 5 earned in 3 innings on 73 pitches. That's the gap.
The Royals are in full-blown freefall. 5 straight losses, swept in Arlington over the weekend, and per the Texas coverage they've now dropped 16 of 19. Jack Leiter punched them out 10 times in 5.2 innings on Sunday. They scored 11 runs across the 3 games in Texas combined. Running that offense into Burns in Cincinnati is not the prescription.
The one wrinkle that could tilt this is Elly De La Cruz. He left Sunday's win over Atlanta in the 5th with hamstring tightness and was scheduled for an MRI Monday morning. He sounded calm about it postgame — "I don't believe it's something bad" — but if the Reds hold him out for precaution against a last-place club, Cincinnati's lineup loses its engine. Worth tracking before lock.
- Day-To-DayMaikel Garcia 3B — Garcia (hamstring) will be re-evaluated Monday, Jaylon T. Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India 2B — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
- 15-Day-ILNick Mears RP — Mears (2-3) was tagged with the loss in relief Friday against the Mariners after allowing two runs on one hit and one walk over one inning.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Bubic (elbow) is still dealing with general left arm fatigue, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez RP — Estevez (shoulder) began playing catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayElly De La Cruz SS — De La Cruz (hamstring) will undergo an MRI on Monday, Pat Brennan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayDane Myers CF — Myers went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during the Reds' 7-4 loss to the Guardians on Saturday.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) underwent an MRI exam Friday that showed positive results, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILPierce Johnson RP — Johnson threw a scoreless seventh inning in Tuesday's win over the Phillies to pick up his fourth hold of the season. He struck out two while allowing a walk.
Kansas City's injury column is its own horror show: Cole Ragans shut down again after a rough rehab outing, Kris Bubic still battling arm fatigue, Carlos Estevez only just playing catch, Maikel Garcia day-to-day with a hamstring, and Jonathan India done for the year after labrum surgery. There's no cavalry coming. They have to slog the next few weeks with what's on the active roster and hope Avila steals 5 innings.
The honest read: Reds are the right side and everyone in the building knows it, which is exactly when MLB likes to humble you. If Avila piggybacks deep enough to keep it 3-2 in the 6th and Cincinnati's pen — without Pagan or Pierce Johnson — has to navigate the late innings, the Royals are absolutely live for one of those ugly, no-fun upsets. Just don't bet on it.