First pitch is 1:10 PM CT at Target Field, and the pitching tilt is decidedly lopsided on paper: Joe Ryan (4-3, 3.20) against Royals call-up Luinder Avila (1-2, 4.44). Pinnacle has the Twins at -145 on the moneyline with a total of 8.5, which tracks given the names on the mound.
Avila is only in this rotation because Cole Ragans is still working back from his elbow issue and Kris Bubic's arm fatigue isn't going anywhere. He's been usable since being recalled — a 3.14 ERA over his stretch in May — and his last outing in Cincinnati was a tidy 5-inning, 1-earned-run win. The walk total (4) is the part that should worry KC against a Twins lineup that, when Byron Buxton is upright, makes you pay for free passes. Buxton homered Thursday and is listed day-to-day but has played through it.
Ryan is the more interesting story. He left a recent start early with right elbow soreness, but the MRI came back clean and he's been back in the rotation. His last time out he punched out 9 White Sox in 6 innings on 98 pitches — the line shows 4 earned, but he was missing bats. Twins Daily flagged the elbow scare as the kind of thing fans are going to white-knuckle every start for a while, especially with Bailey Ober down with a flexor strain and Pablo Lopez on the 60-day.
- Day-To-DayMaikel Garcia 3B — Garcia (hamstring) remains out of the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Twins.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- bereavementStephen Kolek SP — Kolek took a no-decision Wednesday against the Reds, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings. He struck out eight.
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans SP — Ragans (elbow) resumed playing catch Monday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILNick Mears RP — Mears (2-3) was tagged with the loss in relief Friday against the Mariners after allowing two runs on one hit and one walk over one inning.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Bubic (elbow) is still dealing with general left arm fatigue, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayByron Buxton CF — Buxton went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a walk in Thursday's 8-6 loss to Kansas City.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers had the cast and stitches removed from his surgically repaired left hand and has resumed throwing, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow) touched 97 mph in a 37-pitch live batting practice session Thursday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas RP — Rojas (elbow) could begin throwing as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
- 15-Day-ILBailey Ober SP — Ober has a mild flexor strain and will be shut down for 10-14 days, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic
The Royals are short a lot more than just rotation depth. Maikel Garcia is still out with the hamstring, Jonathan India is on the 60-day, and Stephen Kolek — who just pitched Wednesday — is away on bereavement. They've still managed to claw out a win and a near-win at Target Field this week. They are who their 25-39 record says they are, but this is exactly the kind of spot where they grab a getaway game from a divisional contender that just lost its no. 2 starter.
Lean: Twins are the right side on talent, but -145 with a shaky bullpen behind a guy whose elbow has been a story is not a price to chase. The over 8.5 at +101 with Avila walking the park and Ryan's command graded against a Royals offense that's put up 11 runs in two games here is the more interesting number on the board.