Barstool Bush
Predictions

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

By Bush StaffUpdated 68d ago·2 min read
Detroit TigersDET(29-42)
Houston AstrosHOU(33-40)
9—3
FINAL
123456789RHE
DET
1130102019110
HOU
003000000370

First pitch is 7:10 PM CT at Daikin Park, and the marquee is two arms with very different stories. Troy Melton (3-0, 2.81) has been the Tigers' surprise stabilizer since coming off the IL, working around contact and walking nobody his last time out against the Twins. Kai-Wei Teng (3-5, 3.71) has the better strikeout sheet on the year but got punched around by the Angels his last time out, 5 earned in 4 innings on 93 pitches.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Tigers(29-42)
PLLWL
9
Astros(33-40)
LWWLL
3
Best BetAstros -134
Pregame

Houston at -128 is fair value with Teng at home, a returning Diaz potentially in the lineup, and Detroit running out a shorthanded rotation backing a cold offense. The Tigers haven't scored a run in two straight and the bullpen behind Melton is thin — lay the price.

The bigger Tigers story is what isn't on the mound. Jack Flaherty hit the 15-day IL on Saturday with a left peroneal strain after slipping on the bump in Cleveland, joining Casey Mize (adductor), Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe and a still-rehabbing Justin Verlander, who is conveniently slated to throw a sim game in Houston on Monday. Detroit's rotation is basically Skubal and a prayer chain right now, which makes a clean Melton outing kind of essential.

Detroit Tigers
Drew Anderson
(3-3)·4.17 ERA
May 20 vs Guardians
ND
4.2IP
0ER
7K
2BB
63P
06/15 Lineup
Houston Astros
Kai-Wei Teng
(4-6)·4.36 ERA
Jun 9 @ Angels
L
4.0IP
5ER
5K
3BB
93P
06/15 Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(13)
  • Day-To-DayDugan Darnell (RP) — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJosue Briceno (C) — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILCasey Mize (SP) — MIze (adductor) won't be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Sunday against the Guardians after the game was postponed due to inclement weather in Cleveland.06/14
  • 15-Day-ILJack Flaherty (SP) — The Tigers placed Flaherty on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a left peroneal strain.06/13
  • 15-Day-ILBurch Smith (RP) — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander (SP) — Verlander (hip) is slated to throw a simulated game in Houston on Monday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.06/14
  • 60-Day-ILJavier Baez (SS) — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILTrey Sweeney (SS) — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILJackson Jobe (SP) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILBrant Hurter (RP) — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.05/29
  • 60-Day-ILBailey Horn (RP) — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILReese Olson (SP) — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILParker Meadows (CF) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.05/08
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(13)
  • Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — Diaz (oblique) could be reinstated from the injured list during the Astros' upcoming series versus Detroit, which begins Monday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/13
  • 10-Day-ILLaMonte Wade Jr. (1B) — Wade left Monday's game against the Angels with right hamstring soreness, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILNick Allen (SS) — Allen was removed from Sunday's game against the Athletics due to left hamstring discomfort.06/08
  • 10-Day-ILBraden Shewmake (SS) — Shewmake (groin) is not in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Brewers, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.06/02
  • 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that McCullers (shoulder) began a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list to start Tuesday's game against the Tigers, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/14
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — Blanco (elbow) tossed 40 pitches in a simulated game Saturday and will soon start a rehab stint in the Florida Complex League, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/13
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — Javier (shoulder) recorded two outs -- both via strikeout -- and was charged with two earned runs on two hits and two walks in a rehab start Wednesday with Double-A Corpus Christi.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/29

Houston has its own list. Yainer Diaz (oblique) could be activated during this series, which would be a real lineup boost behind Christian Vazquez. Hunter Brown is officially back Tuesday to face the Tigers, so Monday is the soft spot in this series — if Detroit is going to steal one, this is the night. Carlos Correa is gone (ankle surgery), LaMonte Wade Jr. is shelved, and the middle infield has been a revolving door.

Neither team is exactly riding momentum. The Astros split a four-game set in Kansas City and got shut out 4-0 in the finale on Sunday. The Tigers haven't scored in two straight — a 1-3 loss Saturday and a 0-0 suspended tie Sunday in Cleveland — and are 29-42, eight games under and sliding. Houston at 33-40 isn't a juggernaut, but they're home, they're getting healthier, and they've got the better bullpen on paper.

Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(29-42)
Jun 14P@ Guardians0-0
Jun 13L@ Guardians1-3
Jun 12L@ Guardians2-3
Jun 11Wvs Twins11-0
Jun 10Lvs Twins4-6
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(33-40)
Jun 14L@ Royals0-4
Jun 13W@ Royals8-7
Jun 13W@ Royals10-8
Jun 11L@ Angels2-3
Jun 10L@ Angels1-10

The runline math is the interesting part. Houston is a modest -128 favorite but laying -1.5 only pays +157, which tells you the market doesn't fully trust the Astros to put a Melton-led Tigers club away comfortably. Total sits at 8.5 with the under juiced to +104, which feels right for two pitchers who don't issue free passes and two offenses missing their best bats.

Sources

MLBDetroit TigersHouston AstrosPolymarketKalshiDrew AndersonKai-Wei Teng