Detroit at 19-23, the Mets at 16-25 — this is a battle of clubs trying to remember what a winning week feels like. The Mets at least snapped a brutal 12-game skid recently in Minnesota, but they're still tied near the basement of the NL while playing without their best player. The Tigers, meanwhile, have lost 4 of 5 and are touring the country with half a pitching staff.
Framber Valdez gets the ball for Detroit fresh off a suspension that was knocked down from 6 games to 5. He's 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA, which isn't the version Detroit thought it was getting, and he's walking into Queens as the de facto ace because everything behind him is on a table somewhere. Christian Scott counters for the Mets with a tidy 3.27 ERA but zero decisions to his name — a young arm getting a real audition in a rotation that desperately needs one.
The injury lists are where this game actually lives. Detroit is without Tarik Skubal (elbow surgery), Casey Mize, Reese Olson, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Justin Verlander, which is basically a playoff roster on the shelf. The Mets are running it back with no Francisco Lindor (calf, in a boot for a week and shut down 3+ weeks), no Jorge Polanco, no Luis Robert Jr., no Kodai Senga, and Francisco Alvarez was out of Sunday's lineup. Ronny Mauricio is currently the shortstop. That's where we are.
- Day-To-DayDugan Darnell RP — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
- 10-Day-ILKerry Carpenter RF — The Tigers placed Carpenter on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder.
- 15-Day-ILCasey Mize SP — Mize (thigh) threw live batting practice Monday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILWill Vest RP — Vest (forearm) threw a bullpen session Monday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILConnor Seabold RP — Seabold (ankle) struck out two and gave up one hit and no walks over a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Friday with Single-A Lakeland.
- 15-Day-ILTarik Skubal SP — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
- suspensionFramber Valdez SP — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander SP — The Tigers transferred Verlander to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
- Day-To-DayFrancisco Alvarez C — Alvarez is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks.
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. CF — Mets manger Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Robert (back) is still experiencing lingering symptoms and "is not progressing the way we would like," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — Polanco's bruised right wrist has recovered nicely, but he's dealing with a flareup of the bursitis in his left Achilles, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILJared Young 1B — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
The market is mostly shrugging. Pinnacle has it as a coin flip — Mets -108, Tigers -102 — while DraftKings has the Mets at -149, which is a chunky tax for backing the home team. The total split between books (Pinnacle 8, DK 7.5) tells you nobody really knows what to do with two banged-up lineups facing a control lefty and an unproven righty. EV is negative across the board on DK; this is a watch-the-game-don't-bet-the-game card.
Bottom line: if Scott pitches like his ERA, the Mets steal one at home and the fan base gets a 48-hour breather from the daily talk-radio autopsy. If Valdez looks like the guy he's supposed to be, the Tigers walk out of Citi with a series-opener and Detroit gets to pretend the rotation isn't held together by tape and prayers. Under 7.5 feels like the path of least resistance, but I'm not the one telling you to chase it.