Barstool Bush
Predictions

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

By Bush StaffUpdated 53d ago·2 min read
Minnesota TwinsMIN(41-45)
Houston AstrosHOU(42-45)
4—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIN
300010000460
HOU
00060000—681

Joe Ryan (5-4, 3.18 ERA) draws Mike Burrows (3-8, 5.48 ERA) for Tuesday's 7:10 PM CT first pitch at Daikin Park. Those numbers tell a pretty clear story about where each club stands with its starting pitcher — Ryan has been steady and trade-deadline attractive all summer, Burrows has been a liability more often than not. That said, Burrows' last outing was legitimately encouraging: 6 innings, 1 earned run, 2 hits against Toronto on June 24, his best start since early May.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Twins(41-45)
WWLWL
4
Astros(42-45)
LWWLW
6
Best BetAstros -104
Pregame

The Astros are essentially pick-'em at home, which represents reasonable value in a bounce-back spot after dropping game 1. Houston went 3-1 on a Detroit road trip before this series and is capable of putting up runs when the lineup is intact. Getting a slight plus price on a coin-flip home game — even with Pena now on the IL — is enough to back Houston here.

Ryan wasn't flawless in his last turn either — he took the loss against the Dodgers, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits over 6 innings — but his season line speaks to what he's been doing since May, and his name has been circulating in trade deadline chatter with the Cubs and Braves reportedly interested. A pitcher on the move tends to show up and compete. The bigger headline walking into this game is Houston's shortstop situation, which has gone from thin to genuinely dire.

Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan
(6-5)·2.85 ERA
Jun 24 vs Dodgers
L
6.0IP
4ER
9K
1BB
98P
06/30 Lineup
Houston Astros
Mike Burrows
(4-9)·5.99 ERA
Jun 24 @ Blue Jays
ND
6.0IP
1ER
3K
1BB
93P
06/30 Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(12)
  • Day-To-DayByron Buxton (CF) — Buxton is being considered day-to-day due to a right hip impingement, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.06/30
  • Day-To-DayRicardo Olivar (C) — Triple-A St. Paul transferred Olivar from the 7-day injured list to the 60-day IL on June 4 while he recovers from a right knee sprain, Twins writer Brandon Warne reports.06/16
  • Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers (C) — Jeffers (hand) was spotted taking swings in the batting cage and catching a bullpen session Monday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Banda (RP) — The Twins placed Banda on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left lat strain.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILBailey Ober (SP) — Ober (elbow) struck out one batter and allowed three earned runs on seven hits and no walks over 3.1 innings in a rehab start Sunday with High-A Cedar Rapids.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Sands underwent an MRI on Friday that showed healing in his injured forearm, though inflammation was still present, MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — Acton (shoulder) resumed throwing off a mound last week, MLB.com reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — The Twins announced June 1 that Festa (shoulder) has started a throwing progression, MLB.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(11)
  • Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILLaMonte Wade Jr. (1B) — Wade (hamstring) has resumed taking batting practice and shagging flyballs and is expected to head out on a minor-league rehab assignment soon, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 10-Day-ILBraden Shewmake (SS) — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/21
  • 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • OutJeremy Pena (SS) — Pena has been diagnosed with a mild left calf strain and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — Javier (shoulder) struck out five and allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks across 4.2 innings Sunday in his rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — Blanco (elbow) struck out five over three scoreless frames in his first rehab start with the Astros' Florida Complex League affiliate Friday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/29

Jeremy Pena is heading to the 10-day IL with a left calf strain, and Carlos Correa is already long gone following ankle surgery. Houston is running out of options up the middle. On Minnesota's side, Byron Buxton is day-to-day with a right hip impingement — always a concerning phrase with a guy who has spent significant time on injured lists throughout his career — and the Twins rotation is down Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Mick Abel simultaneously. Both teams are playing shorthanded, but the Astros' position-player attrition is the sharper cut right now.

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(41-45)
Jun 30W@ Astros5-4
Jun 28Wvs Rockies3-2
Jun 27Lvs Rockies5-8
Jun 27Wvs Rockies9-8
Jun 24Lvs Dodgers3-4
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(42-45)
Jun 30Lvs Twins4-5
Jun 28W@ Tigers7-5
Jun 27W@ Tigers8-6
Jun 26L@ Tigers0-8
Jun 25W@ Tigers2-1

The Twins arrive at 41-45 having won 3 of their last 5, including last night's series opener. Houston is 42-45 and had been building real momentum — a 3-1 road trip through Detroit — before dropping game 1 at home to a Minnesota team that has no business running off series wins against anyone right now. Neither club is running away with anything in the AL wild-card picture, and in late June every series split stings a little more than it should. For the Astros, Tuesday is a straight bounce-back spot. Whether Burrows can hold it together long enough to make that happen is the actual question.

Sources

MLBMinnesota TwinsHouston AstrosPolymarketKalshiJoe RyanMike Burrows