Minnesota rolls into Cleveland at 16-23 and somehow still has a path to making this matinee feel winnable, mostly because they're sending out the guy whose elbow MRI just came back clean. Joe Ryan exited his last start against Toronto after two batters with elbow soreness, but the imaging showed no structural damage and the Twins kept him on turn for this one.
Tanner Bibee, meanwhile, is the unluckiest 0-5 pitcher in baseball. The Guardians have scored him a grand total of 1 run across his last 6 starts, and he's coming off a 4-inning unraveling against the Royals where Bobby Witt Jr. led off with a homer and the wheels never got bolted back on. The 4.58 ERA looks ugly until you remember Cleveland is 1-7 in his outings.
The market sees this exactly how you'd expect — Cleveland is the home favorite even with a winless starter, because the Twins offense has been the Twins offense. Walker Jenkins is still 10 days out from a re-evaluation on his AC joint sprain, and the rotation depth is gutted with Pablo Lopez and David Festa both transferred to the 60-day.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow) was given a cortisone injection after feeling soreness in his right triceps following a simulated game Saturday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong RP — Armstrong (groin) threw a bullpen session Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters RP — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
The line on Ryan moneyline is essentially a coin flip with a tax, and the public is leaning Cleveland heavy on the spread (76% of bets on the Guardians +1.5). That's a market reading bullpen edge plus home park, not a vote of confidence in Bibee. Worth noting EV is negative on every side here — no number jumps off the page.
Total sits at 8 with the over slightly juiced. Ryan's a fly-ball-prone strikeout arm in a park that plays fair, Bibee misses bats but is leaking baserunners (1.47 WHIP). If the Twins can punch first against a guy who's been pitching with zero margin, this thing could be over by the 6th. If they can't, Cleveland's bullpen closes the door and Bibee finally gets a no-decision he'll take.