Tanner Bibee, meanwhile, is the unluckiest 0-5 pitcher in baseball. The Guardians have scored him a grand total of 1 run across his last 6 starts, and he's coming off a 4-inning unraveling against the Royals where Bobby Witt Jr. led off with a homer and the wheels never got bolted back on. The 4.58 ERA looks ugly until you remember Cleveland is 1-7 in his outings.
The market sees this exactly how you'd expect — Cleveland is the home favorite even with a winless starter, because the Twins offense has been the Twins offense. Walker Jenkins is still 10 days out from a re-evaluation on his AC joint sprain, and the rotation depth is gutted with Pablo Lopez and David Festa both transferred to the 60-day.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis (SP) — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson (RP) — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow) was given a cortisone injection after feeling soreness in his right triceps following a simulated game Saturday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — The Twins transferred Festa (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez (RP) — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias (SS) — no05/09
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong (RP) — Armstrong (groin) threw a bullpen session Friday, MLB.com reports.05/09
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters (RP) — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.05/08
The line on Ryan moneyline is essentially a coin flip with a tax, and the public is leaning Cleveland heavy on the spread (76% of bets on the Guardians +1.5). That's a market reading bullpen edge plus home park, not a vote of confidence in Bibee. Worth noting EV is negative on every side here — no number jumps off the page.
Total sits at 8 with the over slightly juiced. Ryan's a fly-ball-prone strikeout arm in a park that plays fair, Bibee misses bats but is leaking baserunners (1.47 WHIP). If the Twins can punch first against a guy who's been pitching with zero margin, this thing could be over by the 6th. If they can't, Cleveland's bullpen closes the door and Bibee finally gets a no-decision he'll take.