Byron Buxton went deep on the third pitch of Saturday's game and then doubled home Matt Wallner in the 11th to drag the Twins past the Guardians 2-1. Both teams managed exactly two hits. Going back-to-back at Progressive Field after a game like that — with this pitching matchup — is a tall order.
Gavin Williams is the problem on the mound. He took the MLB strikeout lead into his last outing, punched out 9 over 7 2/3 innings of one-unearned-run ball, and is sitting on a 3.28 ERA with a 5-2 record. Cleveland has won 11 of the 14 starts Williams and Parker Messick have made. Andrew Morris (1-1, 4.96) is the counter — a rookie who debuted out of the bullpen earlier this year and has gradually worked into the rotation as the Twins' starting pitching depth gets shredded.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley SP — Bradley (4-1) earned the win Tuesday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters RP — Walters (lat) was returned from his rehab assignment due to a viral illness, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong RP — Armstrong (groin) threw a bullpen session Friday, MLB.com reports.
That injury list is the story of Minnesota's season. Pablo Lopez, Festa, Bradley, Mick Abel — that's basically a rotation on the shelf, which is why a guy like Morris is being asked to match Williams on a Sunday afternoon. Walker Jenkins out with the AC sprain doesn't help the lineup either. Cleveland is mostly healthy by comparison, with Gabriel Arias the lone everyday-ish name on the IL.
The market sees this exactly how the eye test does. Cleveland is a -153 home favorite at Pinnacle, the public is piling on the Guardians at -128 on DraftKings (83% of spread bets, 70% of moneyline handle), and there's no positive EV anywhere on the board. The total is the only number with any tension — Pinnacle has it at 7.5, DK posted 8, and bets are basically split.
For Twins fans the ask is simple: Buxton does Buxton things one more time, Morris keeps the ball in the yard for 5, and the bullpen holds. That is not a small ask in Cleveland against a starter who isn't walking anyone. But the Twins already pulled one rabbit out of a hat in this series. First pitch is 12:40 PM.