Saturday matinee at PNC, and the Twins are running Bailey Ober (6-2, 3.92) at a Pirates club that just walked them off the night before. Mitch Keller (5-2, 3.64) goes for Pittsburgh, and he's been the best version of himself this month — NL Player of the Week for May 8-14 after back-to-back gems, including a career-high 13-strikeout, 7-inning shutout effort at Baltimore.
That's the pitching matchup. The wider context: Minnesota has lost 4 of 5 and just got walked off Friday when Bryan Reynolds turned on a 2-run shot in the 9th to flip a 5-5 game. The Twins bullpen has been the through-line on this skid, and they're missing a chunk of it — Cole Sands, Kendry Rojas, and Garrett Acton are all on the IL, with Julian Merryweather on a rehab assignment but not back yet.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas RP — Rojas will not start against the White Sox on Thursday due to posterior elbow soreness, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — no
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn RF — O'Hearn (quadriceps) worked out in the outfield ahead of Monday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Ober's last time out wasn't his sharpest — 5 innings, 7 hits, 4 earned in a win at Boston — but he kept the Twins in it and got the W. Keller's last start was a clean 6-inning, 1-run job in Toronto. If the early-season trend holds (.208 BAA, 1.05 WHIP coming into the month), the over/under sitting at 8.5 with the under juiced to -114 makes sense.
On the lineup side, the Twins still don't have Ryan Jeffers behind the plate — he's 6-to-8 weeks out after hamate surgery — and Walker Jenkins is creeping back toward baseball activity but isn't close. Pittsburgh is without Joey Bart and Ryan O'Hearn, though both are trending in the right direction. Translation: two banged-up rosters, one rolling rotation arm, and a Twins team that needs to stop the bleeding before this turns into a real losing skid.
Market read: Pirates -1.5 at -174 is steep for a Saturday afternoon baseball game, and the moneyline at -133 reflects what the eye test says — Keller has been the better pitcher, Pittsburgh is at home, and the Twins bullpen is short. If you trust Ober to keep it close into the 6th, the Twins +1.5 is the spot. If you trust the Pirates' last 30 days more than Minnesota's last 5, ride the chalk.