Barstool Bush
Predictions

Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates

By Bush StaffUpdated 83d ago·2 min read
Minnesota TwinsMIN(27-32)
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(31-28)
3—9
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIN
000002001361
PIT
02205000—981

First pitch is 12:35 PM CT at PNC Park, and the Twins hand the ball to Zebby Matthews (1-2, 2.37) against Braxton Ashcraft (4-2, 2.75) — the kind of low-ERA duel that should keep a game tight, except these two clubs just combined for 30 runs over the first two games of the series.

Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews
(2-4)·5.20 ERA
May 25 @ White Sox
L
6.0IP
3ER
6K
1BB
88P
05/31 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft
(5-3)·3.30 ERA
May 26 vs Cubs
W
6.1IP
1ER
5K
1BB
95P
05/31 Lineup

Ashcraft has quietly been one of the better stories in the NL Central rotation, going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA across 5 May starts and coming off a 6.1-inning, 1-ER win over the Cubs. Matthews carries the lower ERA but is 1-2 on the year and took the loss in his last outing in Chicago despite a 6-IP, 3-ER, 6-K line. Something has to give — or the bullpens get dragged in early like they have all weekend.

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(27-32)
May 30L@ Pirates9-10
May 29L@ Pirates5-6
May 28L@ White Sox2-6
May 27L@ White Sox2-15
May 26W@ White Sox5-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(31-28)
May 30Wvs Twins10-9
May 29Wvs Twins6-5
May 28Lvs Cubs2-7
May 27Lvs Cubs4-10
May 26Wvs Cubs12-1

The Pirates are 31-28 and three over .500 thanks largely to the bats waking up. Jake Mangum's first homer of the year keyed Saturday's 10-9 escape, Spencer Horwitz led off the game with a bomb, and Oneil Cruz drove in 3. Pittsburgh sits 5 back of Milwaukee in the Central but has won 6 of 10 — a real fringe-contender vibe for a team most people wrote off in March.

Minnesota is the opposite story. The Twins blew a 6-run lead Saturday after Bailey Ober coughed up 8 in the first two innings, and they're 1-4 in their last 5 with the lone win coming against the White Sox. The injury list is the bigger problem: Pablo Lopez (60-day), David Festa (won't be back before the All-Star break), Ryan Jeffers (hamate surgery, 6-8 weeks), and a bullpen down Cole Sands and Kendry Rojas. There's only so much patchwork a club can do.

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(10)
  • Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
  • Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers (C) — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.05/19
  • 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas (RP) — Rojas will not start against the White Sox on Thursday due to posterior elbow soreness, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.05/29
  • 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
  • 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — no05/19
  • 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Festa is unlikely to return before the All-Star break after experiencing a setback in his recovery from a right shoulder impingement earlier this month, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
  • 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(7)
  • Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — O'Hearn (quad) is expected to return from the injured list Sunday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/30
  • 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/29
  • 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21

The market reflects all of it. Pittsburgh is a -148 home favorite at Pinnacle with a fair-probability read of 58.3%, and the total sits at 7.5 — a number that feels low given Saturday's slugfest but tracks with the listed starters' ERAs. If Ashcraft does his thing for 6 and the Pirates' bats stay warm, this one might never feel close. If Matthews matches him, the Twins finally get the bullpen quiet they've been begging for.

Sources

MLBMinnesota TwinsPittsburgh PiratesPolymarketKalshiZebby MatthewsBraxton Ashcraft