First pitch is 12:35 PM CT at PNC Park, and the Twins hand the ball to Zebby Matthews (1-2, 2.37) against Braxton Ashcraft (4-2, 2.75) — the kind of low-ERA duel that should keep a game tight, except these two clubs just combined for 30 runs over the first two games of the series.
Ashcraft has quietly been one of the better stories in the NL Central rotation, going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA across 5 May starts and coming off a 6.1-inning, 1-ER win over the Cubs. Matthews carries the lower ERA but is 1-2 on the year and took the loss in his last outing in Chicago despite a 6-IP, 3-ER, 6-K line. Something has to give — or the bullpens get dragged in early like they have all weekend.
The Pirates are 31-28 and three over .500 thanks largely to the bats waking up. Jake Mangum's first homer of the year keyed Saturday's 10-9 escape, Spencer Horwitz led off the game with a bomb, and Oneil Cruz drove in 3. Pittsburgh sits 5 back of Milwaukee in the Central but has won 6 of 10 — a real fringe-contender vibe for a team most people wrote off in March.
Minnesota is the opposite story. The Twins blew a 6-run lead Saturday after Bailey Ober coughed up 8 in the first two innings, and they're 1-4 in their last 5 with the lone win coming against the White Sox. The injury list is the bigger problem: Pablo Lopez (60-day), David Festa (won't be back before the All-Star break), Ryan Jeffers (hamate surgery, 6-8 weeks), and a bullpen down Cole Sands and Kendry Rojas. There's only so much patchwork a club can do.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas RP — Rojas will not start against the White Sox on Thursday due to posterior elbow soreness, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — no
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn RF — O'Hearn (quad) is expected to return from the injured list Sunday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
The market reflects all of it. Pittsburgh is a -148 home favorite at Pinnacle with a fair-probability read of 58.3%, and the total sits at 7.5 — a number that feels low given Saturday's slugfest but tracks with the listed starters' ERAs. If Ashcraft does his thing for 6 and the Pirates' bats stay warm, this one might never feel close. If Matthews matches him, the Twins finally get the bullpen quiet they've been begging for.