Barstool Bush
Predictions

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

By Bush StaffUpdated 67d ago·2 min read
Minnesota TwinsMIN(33-40)
Texas RangersTEX(35-36)
4—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIN
300001000440
TEX
002000000250

First pitch is 7:05 PM CT and the pitching matchup is the whole ballgame. Mike Paredes (0-0, 4.35) makes his second career MLB start after a 3-inning, 58-pitch cameo against Detroit on June 10, while MacKenzie Gore (4-5, 4.18) takes the ball for Texas off a 5-inning, 87-pitch no-decision in Kansas City.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Twins(33-40)
WLWLW
4
Rangers(35-36)
WLLWW
2
Best BetRangers -161
Pregame

Texas at -150 is fair, maybe even a touch cheap given Paredes is on a hard pitch count and Minnesota's bullpen is pieced together. Gore at home against this lineup minus its top shortstop prospect is the play, even with Seager out — the depth gap on the mound is what matters tonight.

Paredes is the story here, because he isn't really a starter — he's an opener with a tab. He hasn't crossed 68 pitches in a pro outing all season, so the Twins are essentially asking their bullpen to cover 6 innings on a Monday in Arlington. With Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez, David Festa and Mick Abel all on the IL, this is what the rotation looks like right now.

Minnesota Twins
Mike Paredes
(0-1)·4.26 ERA
Jun 10 @ Tigers
ND
3.0IP
1ER
4K
2BB
58P
06/15 Lineup
Texas Rangers
MacKenzie Gore
(5-6)·4.05 ERA
Jun 10 @ Royals
ND
5.0IP
2ER
6K
3BB
87P
06/15 Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(12)
  • Day-To-DayKaelen Culpepper (SS) — Culpepper was promoted to Double-A Wichita after hitting .293/.385/.479 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases in 54 games for High-A Cedar Rapids.06/15
  • Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Jenkins (shoulder) could start a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers as soon as Saturday, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.06/12
  • Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers (C) — Jeffers had the cast and stitches removed from his surgically repaired left hand and has resumed throwing, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.06/03
  • 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow) struck out five and permitted two hits and no walks over three scoreless frames in his first rehab start with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday.06/11
  • 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas (RP) — Rojas (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Wednesday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — The Twins returned Sands (forearm) from his rehab assignment Tuesday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILBailey Ober (SP) — Ober has a mild flexor strain and will be shut down for 10-14 days, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic06/01
  • 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — The Twins announced June 1 that Festa (shoulder) has started a throwing progression, MLB.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — no05/19
  • 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
(14)
  • Day-To-DayCorey Seager (SS) — Seager (ribs/jaw) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Twins.06/15
  • Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott (SS) — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.04/07
  • 10-Day-ILMichael Helman (CF) — The Rangers placed Helman (hand) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.06/14
  • 10-Day-ILEvan Carter (CF) — The Rangers placed Carter (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Saturday.06/13
  • 10-Day-ILJosh Smith (2B) — Smith (glute/wrist/illness) moved his rehab from Double-A Frisco to Triple-A Round Rock.06/11
  • 10-Day-ILDanny Jansen (C) — Jansen is not in the Rangers' starting lineup against the Guardians on Friday.06/06
  • 15-Day-ILJalen Beeks (RP) — Beeks (2-1) earned the win in relief Saturday against the Cubs after tossing 1.1 scoreless innings. He struck out one with no hits or walks allowed.06/11
  • 15-Day-ILChris Martin (RP) — The Rangers placed Martin on the 15-day injured list Monday with a right shoulder impingement.06/01
  • OutDeclan Cronin (RP) — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.05/08
  • OutNabil Crismatt (SP) — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Montgomery (SP) — Montgomery (elbow) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILRobert Garcia (RP) — The Rangers transferred Garcia (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILCarter Baumler (RP) — Baumler (intercostal) has been shut down from his rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.05/23
  • 60-Day-ILCody Bradford (SP) — Bradford (elbow) began throwing from 60 feet during the Rangers' most recent homestand, MLB.com reports05/10

The other side has its own mess. Corey Seager is out again with rib and jaw soreness plus mild concussion-like symptoms from a home-plate collision with Royals catcher Carter Jensen last week, and he's still working through the protocol. Evan Carter (oblique) and Michael Helman (hand) are on the 10-day IL, Danny Jansen is down behind the plate, and Josh Smith is rehabbing in Round Rock. Jake Burger and Josh Jung carry an awful lot of the lineup on a night like this.

Form-wise, both clubs are wobbling around .500-adjacent. Minnesota took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals at home over the weekend, sandwiched around a 9-0 beating in Detroit on June 11. Texas just dropped a series in Boston, salvaging Sunday's finale 6-4, and now flies home to open a 3-game set against an AL Central team they don't see much.

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(33-40)
Jun 14Wvs Cardinals5-4
Jun 13Lvs Cardinals6-9
Jun 13Wvs Cardinals9-8
Jun 11L@ Tigers0-11
Jun 10W@ Tigers6-4
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
(35-36)
Jun 14W@ Red Sox6-4
Jun 13L@ Red Sox3-6
Jun 12L@ Red Sox1-10
Jun 11W@ Royals4-2
Jun 10W@ Royals6-4

Gore's the comfortable read at home — he's allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his last 6 starts — but the walks (15 in 7 starts) keep him from being a clean lay. Against a Twins lineup leaning on Byron Buxton and Josh Bell, with Kaelen Culpepper still in the minors and Walker Jenkins on a slow rehab path, the Rangers' edge is real but it's not 1.5 runs of edge.

Sources

MLBMinnesota TwinsTexas RangersPolymarketKalshiMike ParedesMacKenzie Gore