The Red Sox have lost more games than they've won, just fired Alex Cora three weeks ago, and are without Trevor Story, Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet. They're still the favorite here, and it's because Payton Tolle is on the mound. Boston's top prospect punched out 11 Yankees in his MLB debut — 5 straight to start the game — and now gets a Twins lineup that's been mediocre on the road all year.
Minnesota counters with Connor Prielipp, who has been quietly excellent through 4 starts (2.88 ERA in the data, 26.6% K rate per MLB.com). The catch: the Twins have capped him at exactly 5 innings in each of his last 3 outings while they manage his workload. That puts pressure on a bullpen down Cole Sands and Julian Merryweather, against a Boston offense that's averaging 2.6 runs per game since Chad Tracy took over per 98.5 The Sports Hub. There's a reason the total is sitting at 7.5.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley SP — Bradley (pectoral) could rejoin the Twins' rotation as soon as Saturday in Boston, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (wrist) was shut down through at least Thursday before the Red Sox re-evaluate him, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story is seeking additional opinions about whether surgery is needed for his sports hernia, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) threw two innings in an up-and-down bullpen session Wednesday, Christopher Smith of Masslive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — Coulombe (neck) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Portland on Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The injury sheet here is brutal on both sides. Boston is missing its ace (Crochet), its shortstop (Story, who's seeking opinions on sports hernia surgery), and its best young outfielder (Anthony, who only just started swinging again). Minnesota is without Pablo Lopez for the year, Ryan Jeffers is 6-to-8 weeks out after hamate surgery, and Taj Bradley is targeting a return this weekend in Boston. Whichever bench gets pressed into action first probably loses.
Pinnacle has the Red Sox at -147 and the run line is basically a coin flip at -1 (-101). That's the market telling you it likes Tolle but doesn't fully trust this Boston lineup to push a number on anyone. If you believe in the rookie, the moneyline is the cleaner ticket — laying a run with a team scoring 2.6 a night feels optimistic.
First pitch is 6:10 PM local at Fenway. Take the under, watch the rookies, and try not to think about the fact that two teams a combined 10 games under .500 are the entertainment.