The Twins roll into the Sunday finale at 25-27 and have been the better team for the last two weeks. Boston, at 22-29, is still searching for traction — they came in 26th in OPS and 29th in runs scored on the year, which is not exactly the lineup you want trying to dig out of an early hole.
The pitching matchup is the headline. Bailey Ober has been quietly excellent — he ran a 4-0 stretch with a 2.28 ERA over a 10-start window in April and May, capped by an 89-pitch, 2-hit shutout of the Marlins on May 12 that was just the second sub-90-pitch shutout in Twins pitch-tracking history. Sonny Gray has been even better since coming off the IL on May 6: 2 earned runs across 16 innings, including a 9-strikeout, 1-run gem against the Royals on May 18. Two guys throwing the ball as well as anyone in either league right now.
The injury sheets are also doing some heavy lifting here, especially on the Boston side. Trevor Story just had sports hernia surgery and is gone 6-to-10 weeks. Roman Anthony is out with a sprained ligament in his right ring finger. Triston Casas remains on the 60-day. Take the bat out of the heart of an already-bottom-5 offense and you can see why the Twins keep getting traction in this series.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- paternityTristan Gray 3B — Gray will start at third base and bat seventh in Wednesday's game against the Astros.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Red Sox president Sam Kennedy clarified Friday on WEEI 93.7 FM that Anthony is dealing with a sprained ligament on the base of his right ring finger, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — Coulombe (neck) will be activated from the 15-day injured list Sunday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) will face hitters Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — no
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The market has Boston as a moderate home favorite — Pinnacle has the Sox at -153 on the moneyline, Twins at +137, with the total parked at 7.5. Two starters this sharp working a noon first pitch usually means the under gets a long look, and the public is actually leaning the other way on it. EV is negative across the board, so nothing screams 'bet me,' but the spread shop is interesting if you're hunting Minnesota at +1.5.
Bottom line: the Twins have the hotter team, the healthier lineup, and a starter going who's been every bit Gray's equal lately. Boston needs Gray to do Gray things and hope someone in this banged-up lineup picks a spot to do damage. First pitch is 12:35 PM ET at Fenway.