Taj Bradley (5-2, 3.56) gets the ball for the Twins against Troy Melton (2-0, 1.74), first pitch 5:40 PM CT at Comerica Park. Bradley is coming off his ugliest line of the year — 4.2 innings, 5 walks, 4 earned in an 8-0 home shutout loss to the White Sox, with Derek Shelton flatly calling out the fastball execution. Melton, meanwhile, just went a career-long 8 against the Rays on the same date, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and needing only 94 pitches.
This is, no kidding, a real edge for Detroit on paper. Melton was a rehab project a month ago and is now pitching his way into a fixture spot in the rotation while Tarik Skubal works his way back (5 scoreless in High-A West Michigan last weekend). The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5 and are getting it done without their ace, without Casey Mize, without Verlander, and without Kenley Jansen at the back end. The 27-39 record is starting to feel less like a true reading of this team.
The Twins, on the other hand, are a mess. They just got swept around by Kansas City at home — losing 8-6, 3-2 and 6-5 across the final three of that series — and the offense is doing it without Byron Buxton, who's been out of the lineup since Sunday with a shoulder issue. Ryan Jeffers is still on the IL. The rotation is gutted: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, David Festa and Mick Abel are all parked. That's a lot to overcome on a road trip.
- Day-To-DayByron Buxton CF — Buxton (shoulder) is not in the Twins' starting lineup against the Royals on Sunday.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers had the cast and stitches removed from his surgically repaired left hand and has resumed throwing, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel SP — Abel (elbow) touched 97 mph in a 37-pitch live batting practice session Thursday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKendry Rojas RP — Rojas (elbow) could begin throwing as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
- 15-Day-ILBailey Ober SP — Ober has a mild flexor strain and will be shut down for 10-14 days, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic
- Day-To-DayDugan Darnell RP — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
- Day-To-DayJosue Briceno C — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
- 10-Day-ILJavier Baez SS — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Baez (ankle) has been shut down from baseball activities for an unspecified length of time, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
- 15-Day-ILBurch Smith RP — Smith (shoulder) started a throwing program Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILTarik Skubal SP — Skubal (elbow) tossed five scoreless innings Sunday in a rehab start with High-A West Michigan, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out six batters.
- 15-Day-ILKenley Jansen RP — Jansen (pelvis) will make a rehab appearance for Triple-A Toledo on Tuesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCasey Mize SP — Mize (adductor) will make a rehab start with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander SP — Verlander (hip) is scheduled to make a second rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Toledo, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
Pinnacle has the Tigers at -122 with a 7.5 total, and given how Melton has looked and how Bradley's last outing went, that's not a particularly aggressive number. The Twins really do need Bradley to reset the strike zone early — that 28-pitch first inning against Chicago is the version Detroit's lineup will absolutely punish. If he lives in the zone, this is a different game. If he's spraying it again, the under on Minnesota's run total is doing a lot of the work.
Bottom line: Detroit at home, hot bullpen workload manageable behind a guy who just went 8, against a Twins club that looks tired and shorthanded. The Tigers are the side that should be respected here, even if the price has caught up to the form.