The problem for Minnesota is Davis Martin. The 2.04 ERA in the data is actually generous compared to the season-long line you'll see elsewhere — Sun-Times has him pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA and an AL-best winning percentage as the breakout arm of Chicago's rotation. He's gone at least 5 innings allowing 2 or fewer runs in 7 straight starts. That's the guy the Twins draw on getaway day.
On the other side: Connor Prielipp, a rookie lefty making roughly his 6th big-league start. His last time out in Boston was ugly — 4 innings, 5 earned, 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 strikeout on 85 pitches. The Pablo Lopez and David Festa injuries are why he's still in the rotation, and the Twins desperately need him to give them something resembling length here.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers (C) — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson (RP) — Laweryson (forearm) worked around a walk to deliver a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Saturday with Triple-A St. Paul.05/18
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — no05/19
- 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Festa is unlikely to return before the All-Star break after experiencing a setback in his recovery from a right shoulder impingement earlier this month, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayMason Adams (RP) — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILAustin Hays (LF) — Hays (calf) will play in at least two more rehab games with Triple-A Charlotte before he is evaluated for a potential return, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 10-Day-ILEverson Pereira (RF) — Pereira (pectoral) resumed throwing Monday, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 15-Day-ILNoah Schultz (SP) — Schultz (2-4) took the loss against the Giants on Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits and one walk while striking out one batter across four innings.05/26
- 15-Day-ILJordan Hicks (RP) — Hicks was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right lat strain.05/23
- OutTim Elko (1B) — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKy Bush (SP) — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 60-Day-ILDrew Thorpe (SP) — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 60-Day-ILKyle Teel (C) — Teel (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined an additional 3-to-6 weeks after suffering a sprained LCL in his right knee during a rehab game with Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILPrelander Berroa (RP) — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.05/17
- 60-Day-ILMike Vasil (RP) — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTanner Murray (LF) — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrooks Baldwin (LF) — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The market sees the gap. Pinnacle has the White Sox at -122 with a fair-probability win rate of nearly 54%, and the run line splits between books — Pinnacle's at 1.5, DK's at 1.5 the other way. Public money on DK is hammering Chicago on the spread (67% of bets) and the over (67%), which tracks if you think the rookie gets touched up early.
Minnesota's also down Ryan Jeffers behind the plate for 6-to-8 weeks with a hamate fracture, which thins out the lineup against a strike-thrower like Martin. Walker Jenkins is still a week away from baseball activity. If the Twins want to take the series, somebody other than the rotation has to carry it — and they need Prielipp to keep the score under control long enough for the bats to swing back.