Twins Swept In San Diego And Fall 2 Games Out Of The Wild Card With 31 To Play
Minnesota lost 2-6, 5-7 and 1-8 at Petco Park and left the weekend 63-68, 2 games back of the third American League wild card with an elimination number of 30. They open in Sacramento tonight against a 51-80 Athletics club that has been outscored by 187 runs.
Three days ago the Twins were 1 game out of a playoff spot. They are 2 out this morning, and the number understates the weekend: Minnesota lost all three at Petco Park by a combined 21-8, scored 1 run on Sunday against Walker Buehler, and left San Diego on a 3-game losing streak that is their longest since the Philadelphia series 9 days ago.
The record is 63-68. The run differential is minus-54 — 600 scored, 654 allowed — and it is the second-worst number of any club still in this race. The elimination number is 30 with 31 games to play, which is the arithmetic way of saying that the Twins can no longer afford a week like the one they just had.
Three games in San Diego, and the middle one was the only competitive game
PadresL2-6PadresL5-7PadresL1-8Friday was 2-6 and never close. Saturday was the one worth watching and the one that will sting: Minnesota scored in each of the first 4 innings, led 5-1, and did not score again — San Diego took it 7-5 with 4 runs in the seventh, Griffin Canning winning it and Andrew Morris wearing it. We wrote that one up on Sunday morning. Sunday was 1-8, Buehler went the distance of a start the Twins never threatened, and Kody Funderburk took the loss.
What makes the sweep read worse than a sweep is what came before it. The weekend prior, Minnesota had Atlanta at Target Field and won 4-2, 4-1 and 6-4 — the stretch that put them inside a game of the bracket in the first place. Six games, one sweep each way, and the net effect is a club that is exactly where its run differential said it was.
The AL wild-card race: two clubs tied for the last spot, five within four games
New York and Boston are gone — 9.5 and 6.5 clear of the cut, respectively, and neither has lost more than they have won in a month. The third spot is a genuine scrum, and the Twins are now on the wrong side of two teams that were level with them on Friday:
| AL Wild Card | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Guardians | 65 | 66 | .496 | — |
 Rangers | 65 | 66 | .496 | — |
 Blue Jays | 64 | 68 | .485 | 1.5 |
 Twins | 63 | 68 | .481 | 2.0 |
 Orioles | 63 | 68 | .481 | 2.0 |
 Mariners | 62 | 69 | .473 | 3.0 |
 Tigers | 61 | 69 | .469 | 3.5 |
Cleveland is the problem. The Guardians have won 4 straight, they hold a share of the spot, and at minus-9 they are the closest thing in this group to a team playing at the level its record claims. Detroit is the other one to watch for the opposite reason: 3.5 back, losers of 5 in a row, and still plus-73 on the season — the only club in the race that has outscored its opponents, and the one whose form and underlying numbers disagree most.
And they lost another arm: Kendry Rojas, oblique, possibly the season
Minnesota placed left-hander Kendry Rojas on the injured list with an oblique strain on Saturday, first reported by MLB Trade Rumors. He had left a Triple-A St. Paul start after one inning; MLB Trade Rumors framed the timeline as potentially the rest of the season.
Twins Place Kendry Rojas On IL With Oblique Strain t.co/k31c7xEP2m
It is a bigger loss than a depth arm normally is. Rojas is 23, Minnesota's No. 10 prospect, and he had a 3.34 ERA with a 26.2% strikeout rate across 29 2/3 major league innings this season — he came over from Toronto last July with Alan Roden in the deal that sent Louis Varland and Ty France the other way. And it is the second oblique in the same role: Mike Paredes, who was filling the identical swingman job, is already on the 60-day with one. Our full write-up is here.
The one thing that moved forward: Joe Ryan completed a 35-pitch bullpen session in St. Paul on Saturday, per MLB.com — up from 25 pitches on Tuesday, and the clearest step any of these arms has taken. He is still on the 15-day list with a glute strain.
The rest is unchanged and it is most of a rotation: David Festa is done for the year after double shoulder surgery, Anthony Banda's repaired lat ended his season, Pablo Lopez is on the 60-day with an elbow, Paredes on the 60-day with the oblique, Cole Sands on the 60-day after arthroscopic elbow surgery, and Mick Abel is not re-evaluated until September 1. Austin Martin is on the 10-day with a left hamstring strain, per Aaron Gleeman.
Twins at Athletics odds tonight: Zebby Matthews against Jeffrey Springs
Minnesota opens three games in Sacramento at 6:40 p.m. local time, with Zebby Matthews against Jeffrey Springs. Matthews takes the better recent form into it; Springs carries a 6.02 ERA and walked 3 in his last outing.
DraftKings opened the Twins at -153 with the total at 10.5, and that total is the number to notice: Sutter Health Park is a minor-league yard, the Athletics have allowed 755 runs — the most in baseball by a distance — and Minnesota scored 2, 5 and 1 across the three games in San Diego. Both halves of that are true, which is exactly why the total sits where it does.
This is the softest week left on the schedule — 51-80, minus-187, and three games of it. A club 2 games out of a playoff spot with 31 to play does not get another one, and what Minnesota does in Sacramento is very close to the whole answer.
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