Records say the White Sox (75-71) are still the better team on paper than the Cardinals (72-75), and that gap is part of why Chicago's priced as the favorite even on the road. But paper records mean less in September than who's healthy and who's gassed, and right now that split favors St. Louis.
Neither club is playing well right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight, having just been swept by Pittsburgh after an up-and-down set with Minnesota. St. Louis has also lost 3 in a row, dropping the finale of its set with San Francisco in a low-scoring, one-run game. Both teams are looking for any kind of spark before the calendar turns.
For a Cardinals team with little left to play for beyond pride, getting Winn back matters more than it would in June — it's a look at what the healthy roster actually is down the stretch. For Chicago, the bullpen math only gets tighter from here, and Kay needs to give his relievers more than the 4-plus innings he managed his last time out if the White Sox want to avoid taxing an already short-handed group further.