Barstool Bush
Predictions

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

By Bush StaffUpdated 51d ago·2 min read
Chicago White SoxCWS(45-40)
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(45-42)
5—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
CWS
0000320005100
CLE
002001102692

Davis Martin (9-3, 3.00 ERA) makes the trip to Cleveland to face Slade Cecconi (4-6, 4.18 ERA) in what shapes up as the best individual pitching duel of this early-July stretch. First pitch is 6:40 PM ET at Progressive Field.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
White Sox(45-40)
LWWLW
5
Guardians(45-42)
WLLWW
6
Best BetWhite Sox -113
Pregame

The White Sox come in as slight favorites at around -113, which is close to a coin flip on paper. But Martin's 9-3 record and 3.00 ERA against Cecconi's 4.18 ERA tips that coin pretty clearly toward Chicago. Cleveland's best offensive player is on the shelf, and the White Sox are 2 games up with momentum — price is fine for what you're getting.

The backdrop is a legitimate division race. Chicago leads Cleveland by 2 games, and this series opens with the Guardians needing wins just to stay in the conversation. The problem for Cleveland is that their best player isn't on the field — Jose Ramirez underwent surgery for a left hamate fracture in mid-June, had his stitches removed Tuesday, and the earliest he's back is after the All-Star break. The Guardians salvaged a 9-4 win over Texas on Wednesday to close out that series, but running without Ramirez against a White Sox team that's been legitimately good is a different animal.

Chicago White Sox
Davis Martin
(9-4)·3.41 ERA
Jun 27 vs Royals
ND
5.1IP
0ER
3K
1BB
87P
07/02 Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
(4-6)·4.55 ERA
Jun 27 vs Mariners
W
6.0IP
0ER
4K
2BB
87P
07/02 Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
(45-40)
Jul 1L@ Orioles1-6
Jun 30W@ Orioles9-3
Jun 29W@ Orioles8-2
Jun 28Lvs Royals4-5
Jun 27Wvs Royals2-1
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(45-42)
Jul 1Wvs Rangers9-4
Jun 30Lvs Rangers2-4
Jun 29Lvs Rangers3-6
Jun 28Wvs Mariners6-5
Jun 27Wvs Mariners4-3

Martin's 2026 has been one of the AL's real pitching stories. He entered this season with a career 4.32 ERA over parts of 3 big-league years and nobody was penciling him in as a rotation cornerstone. Now he's 9-3 with a 3.00 ERA, posting an elite K-to-BB ratio built around a cutter and a kick-changeup that's holding opponents to a .161 batting average. His last start — 5.1 shutout innings against Kansas City on June 27 — ended as a no-decision, but he hasn't been easy to score on all year. The White Sox win games when he pitches, which is the simplest way to put it.

Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
(14)
  • Day-To-DayHagen Smith (SP) — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.06/16
  • Day-To-DayTim Elko (1B) — no06/11
  • Day-To-DayMason Adams (RP) — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • 7-Day ILEverson Pereira (RF) — Pereira (concussion) is making progress in his recovery but is still experiencing concussion symptoms, MLB.com reports.07/01
  • 10-Day-ILMunetaka Murakami (1B) — White Sox manager Will Venable said Sunday that Murakami (hamstring) is increasing the intensity of his hitting and running at about 80 percent intensity, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.06/21
  • 15-Day-ILTyler Gilbert (RP) — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.06/10
  • 60-Day-ILAustin Hays (LF) — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Leasure (RP) — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.05/30
  • 60-Day-ILKy Bush (SP) — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.05/26
  • 60-Day-ILDrew Thorpe (SP) — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.05/26
  • 60-Day-ILPrelander Berroa (RP) — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILMike Vasil (RP) — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Murray (LF) — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBrooks Baldwin (LF) — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(4)
  • Day-To-DayTanner Burns (SP) — no06/17
  • Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez (RP) — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJose Ramirez (3B) — Ramirez had stitches removed from his left hand Tuesday and could soon begin swinging a bat as the next step in his rehab process, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.07/01
  • 10-Day-ILAngel Martinez (LF) — Martinez (foot) has shed his walking boot, is playing catch and hitting off a batting tee, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.06/28

Cecconi gives Cleveland something to work with. His surface-level 4.18 ERA doesn't capture what's happened in June — a 1.88 ERA across nearly 29 innings after he introduced a new slider that opposing hitters have batted just .059 against with a 36% whiff rate. His last start was 6 shutout innings against Seattle on 87 pitches, and he walked out with the win. He's not Martin, but he's trending up at the right time. The question is whether a lineup missing Ramirez can generate enough to turn Cecconi's recent form into a meaningful result.

The total market has told a clear story here — the under line moved significantly in the lead-up to first pitch, which makes sense when you stack both starters' recent outings. Neither allowed an earned run in his last start, both are limiting baserunners, and Cleveland's offense has a meaningful hole in it. This is a divisional game that means something in the standings, which tends to tighten things up rather than open them up.

Sources

MLBChicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansPolymarketKalshiDavis MartinSlade Cecconi