TLDR: In more than 30 years in the AL Central, the White Sox and Guardians had never met in the postseason. That ends Saturday, October 3, at Progressive Field, where Chicago brings a Wild Card sweep of Houston into Game 1 of the ALDS against a Cleveland club that rested through the first round.
Two AL Central rivals meet in the postseason for the first time. Chicago is coming off a Wild Card sweep of Houston, and Cleveland is coming off a bye after going 24-11 to close the season. Neither team has named a starter, but Cleveland's options of Messick and Williams have pitched better against Chicago than the White Sox's likely bullpen-heavy plan suggests. Still, Chicago won the season series by 1 game and 1 run, so Game 1 should be close.
Neither manager had named a Game 1 starter as of Thursday, so the pitching card is still TBD. MLB.com reports Cleveland's choice is between Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, and both have handled Chicago this year. Messick has a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 4 starts against the Sox. Williams led the AL with 248 strikeouts and has a 3.98 ERA in his 4 starts against them. On the Chicago side, Davis Martin looks like the most likely candidate, with Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde also in the mix. Martin has a 3.72 ERA in 9 2/3 innings against Cleveland this year. With Luis Castillo on the IL with right shoulder impingement, nobody would be surprised if the Sox handed this one to the bullpen early. They used an opener 31 times this season, more than any team in baseball.
Whoever starts for Cleveland decides a lot about both lineups. If Messick, a lefty, gets the ball, the White Sox go heavy on right-handed bats with Randal Grichuk at DH, and the Guardians catch Austin Hedges. If it's Williams, Patrick Bailey catches. Vogt can also move David Fry or Jo Adell around depending on which arm Chicago sends out. Cleveland is still without Rhys Hoskins, who has a back problem but worked out during the bye, and Colin Holderman, whose right wrist needed an injection. The board has the home team as a solid but not overwhelming favorite, which seems about right for a series between two clubs this evenly matched.
How evenly matched? Chicago took the season series 7-6 and outscored Cleveland by exactly 1 run, 58-57. Of the 13 games, 11 were decided by 3 runs or fewer, 7 by a single run, and 4 ended on walk-offs. Vogt didn't sound like a manager glad to see a division rival he knows well: "They've got a lot of power and they match up really well with us pitching-wise… a very, very good team."
Both teams are playing their best ball of the year. Cleveland finished the regular season 24-11, the 2nd-best record in the majors over that stretch. Steven Kwan led the majors with a .353 average after the All-Star break, and Travis Bazzana (.978 OPS) and Angel Martínez (.953 OPS) both had big Septembers. Chicago beat the AL West champion Astros 6-3 and 7-3 for its first postseason series win since 2005, with Chase Meidroth's 3-run homer powering the clincher. One open question for the Sox: closer Grant Taylor threw 54 pitches in the Wild Card opener. The club expects him to be available for Game 1.
Late innings could decide this. Cleveland closer Cade Smith finished the year with 41 saves, tied for the MLB lead, a 1.95 ERA and 15 straight scoreless innings over his final 13 appearances. Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis set him up, and that whole group comes in rested from the bye. Chicago will rely on Taylor plus young lefties Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz. With so many close games in the season series, how each team's bullpen holds up from the 6th inning on matters more here than it usually would. After Game 1 at 1:00 PM ET, Game 2 is back in Cleveland on Monday.
