Carlos Rodón gets the ball for the Yankees with a 6.23 ERA and a 0-0 record, which is what happens when your season debut is a 4 1/3-inning, 5-walk slog against the Brewers. The stuff is reportedly there — his four-seamer averaged 95.7 mph last time out, up from 2025 — but the command was nowhere to be found. He has one shot to clean that up before this thing turns into a real problem.
Across the diamond, the Mets are running it back with Huascar Brazobán as an opener. He carries a 2.14 ERA and a 2-1 record, but the assignment is the same as it has been all month: get through an inning, hand it off to the bulk guy, hope the bullpen holds. With Senga on the IL and Holmes already used in Friday's opener, this is what the rotation looks like in May.
The injury reports are the real story of this series. The Mets are missing Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr. — basically half of an everyday lineup. The Yankees aren't exactly whole either, with Stanton, Jasson Dominguez, and Caballero all parked on the IL, plus Fried freshly added with an elbow bone bruise. Cole is still working through his rehab build.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Stanton has not yet been cleared to ramp up his running after an MRI on his injured right calf did not show enough healing, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Dominguez recently received a PRP injection in his injured left shoulder and is likely a few weeks away from returning, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Caballero SS — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Caballero (finger) is expected to reclaim the team's starting shortstop job when he returns from the injured list, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole SP — Cole (elbow) completed five innings in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
- Day-To-DayGrae Kessinger 3B — no
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — Polanco (Achilles/wrist) was given a platelet-rich plasma injection in mid-April to combat his left Achilles bursitis, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Alvarez C — Alvarez is expected to be sidelined eight weeks after undergoing right meniscus surgery Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor SS — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Thursday that an MRI on Lindor's left calf showed healing, but there remains no timetable for the shortstop's return, Steve Gelbs of SNY reports.
On paper the Yankees should bulldoze this. They're 28-17, the Mets are 18-26 and have been outscored most nights they aren't sweeping the Tigers. But the market knows that — DraftKings has the Yankees at -149 and a run-and-a-half favorite, and the EVs on every side of this card are negative. Nothing here is screaming bet me.
The angle to watch is the total. DK has it at 7, Pinnacle at 8.5 — that's a full run-and-a-half gap between books, which is unusual and probably says more about how the market views the Brazobán bullpen game than it does about Rodón. If Rodón walks the park again, the under doesn't have a chance regardless of what number you took.
First pitch is 6:15 PM at Citi Field. Judge has 14 career home runs against the Mets, the most in Subway Series history. That feels like the most reliable bet on the board, and it's not even on the board.