Elmer Rodríguez vs. Freddy Peralta is the matchup, and on paper it isn't close. Peralta has been humming since landing in Queens — 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last 3 starts, 14 strikeouts in 17 innings — while Rodríguez is making his 3rd big-league start after coughing up 3 runs in a 37-pitch first inning against Texas last time out. The Yankees only need him here because Max Fried hit the IL on Friday.
The market still leans Yankees, which tells you what oddsmakers think of a Mets lineup that's basically a Triple-A roster in Queens uniforms. Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and now Clay Holmes (fibula, shut down 6-8 weeks) are all on the shelf. That 19-26 record makes more sense when you read the injury report.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Stanton has not yet been cleared to ramp up his running after an MRI on his injured right calf did not show enough healing, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Dominguez recently received a PRP injection in his injured left shoulder and is likely a few weeks away from returning, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Caballero SS — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Caballero (finger) is expected to reclaim the team's starting shortstop job when he returns from the injured list, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole SP — Cole (elbow) allowed one run on six hits and one walk while striking out six across 5.1 innings in his rehab start with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
- Day-To-DayGrae Kessinger 3B — no
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — Polanco (Achilles/wrist) was given a platelet-rich plasma injection in mid-April to combat his left Achilles bursitis, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Alvarez C — Alvarez is expected to be sidelined eight weeks after undergoing right meniscus surgery Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor SS — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Thursday that an MRI on Lindor's left calf showed healing, but there remains no timetable for the shortstop's return, Steve Gelbs of SNY reports.
Don't feel too sorry for the Bronx side though — the Yankees are also running on fumes in the rotation. Cole is still rehabbing in Scranton (5.1 IP, 1 ER on Saturday), Fried just went down with an elbow bone bruise, Schmidt is on the 60-day, and Stanton, Dominguez, and Caballero are all on position-player IL. 28-18 with this group is genuinely impressive.
The Yankees took the opener 5-2 per local coverage, so the Mets are already playing for a series split. Peralta's first Subway Series start is the obvious storyline — he told reporters he's feeling "a lot of emotions" — and if he gives them 6 clean, this is a very winnable home game against a prospect making his 3rd MLB start. The total sits at 8.5, which feels generous given both starters.
Last 5 says the Mets are 4-1 and the Yankees are 2-3, which is the kind of split that flips a game like this from "chalk" to "interesting." Noon first pitch. If Rodríguez has another 37-pitch first inning, this thing is over by the 4th.