New York Yankees at San Diego Padres

Fri Sep 46:40 PM PT
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: The Yankees are cruising toward October with room to spare. The Padres are showing up to Petco Park a half-game from the wrong side of the National League wild-card cutoff.

FINAL · SAT SEP 5, 1:40 AM
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New York Yankees
  • 80-60, well clear of Padres in the standings
  • 4-1 in last 5, won 2 straight
  • Judge targeting activation for next homestand
  • Rotation thinned with Schmidt and Weathers both out
  • Fried's last start lasted just 3.2 innings
  • Still without Judge and Stanton's power
San Diego Padres
  • Just a half-game out of a wild-card spot
  • Buehler strung together a sub-2.00 ERA stretch in June
  • Bullpen built to shorten close games
  • 1-4 in last 5, riding a 2-game skid
  • Musgrove's rehab paused again this week
  • Lost setup man Estrada to a shoulder injury

First pitch at Petco Park is 6:40 PM PT, and the arms alone tell you who's favored — Max Fried is sitting on a 2.80 ERA, Walker Buehler on a 4.66. But that number undersells how volatile Buehler's season has actually been; he strung together a stretch with an ERA under 2.00 in June before his command completely came apart the following month, per Friars On Base.

Max Fried
Max Fried
(5-4)·2.63 ERA
Aug 29 vs Red Sox
ND
3.2IP
1ER
4K
1BB
63P
09/04 Lineup
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler
(8-6)·4.58 ERA
Aug 29 @ Rays
ND
5.0IP
3ER
3K
0BB
71P
09/04 Lineup

San Diego's rotation crisis is the bigger story heading into this series. Joe Musgrove's rehab assignment was paused again this week after his elbow flared up mid-comeback, and Nick Pivetta is still working his way back from a flexor strain — both pitchers the Padres were counting on to stabilize the back half of their season, according to The Sports Leader. New York's issues are less acute: Clarke Schmidt and Ryan Weathers are both still out, but the Yankees have enough pitching depth to absorb it in a way San Diego currently can't.

The stakes cut differently for each side. New York's 80-60 record has this thing more or less decided; San Diego is sitting just a half-game out of the final NL wild-card spot with a stretch run to navigate, per SI.com's Padres coverage. That gap in urgency is worth remembering every time these two show up on the field this weekend.

09/02W@Angels6-3
09/01W@Angels7-3
08/31L@Angels1-10
08/30WvsRed Sox16-1
08/29WvsRed Sox9-2
09/02L@Reds3-7
09/01L@Reds3-4
08/31W@Reds5-0
08/30L@Rays4-5
08/29L@Rays6-7

New York's last five games split across two series — took 2 of 2 from Boston before going out west and taking 2 of the first 3 from the Angels. San Diego's stretch has been rougher: dropped both games of a set with Tampa Bay, then took just 1 of 3 from Cincinnati. None of that is fatal for the Padres this deep into September, but it's the kind of form that turns a half-game deficit into a bigger one in a hurry.

Aaron Judge isn't walking through that door this weekend, but his absence has an expiration date — Aaron Boone has targeted the Yankees' upcoming homestand, which opens Sept. 8, for an activation, per MLB.com. That's a real bright spot for a New York lineup that's had to survive without him and Giancarlo Stanton for months. San Diego doesn't have a parallel storyline; its walking wounded — Musgrove, Pivetta, Jeremiah Estrada out of the bullpen — are all pitchers the Padres need right now, not pitchers they're waiting to add back for a playoff push that hasn't started yet.

Yankees 2, Padres 3: Final Score & Odds Recap — Yankees Roll Into Petco Park As Padres Fight For Their Playoff Lives