TLDR: The Rays won the AL East, sat out the Wild Card round and spent the week waiting. The Yankees spent that week burying Boston 18-2 over 2 games, and both teams know each other far too well for a Division Series opener.
The AL East champion Rays open the ALDS at home with Drew Rasmussen, the league's stingiest starter by WHIP, against a Yankees team that crushed Boston without Aaron Judge and hasn't picked a starter between Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. Tampa Bay is rested but missing McClanahan and several key relievers. Judge's status is the one piece of news that could change this game before Saturday.
Drew Rasmussen gets Game 1 for Tampa Bay, and it was the easiest call Kevin Cash had to make. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and the best WHIP in the American League at 0.91. His last start came against this same Yankees lineup in the Bronx: 6.2 innings, 1 hit and 11 strikeouts. New York still hasn't named its starter for Saturday, October 3. Pitching coach Matt Blake says it will be Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodón, because Max Fried and Cam Schlittler were both used to finish off the Red Sox.
TBD
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TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
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10/03 Lineup
Drew Rasmussen
(16-5)·2.67 ERA
Sep 22 @ Yankees
W
6.2IP
1ER
11K
3BB
114P
10/03 Lineup
For New York, everything hangs on Aaron Judge. He sat out the whole Wild Card Series with a strained calf, and as of Wednesday he said he didn't know whether he'd be ready for the Rays. The Yankees scored 18 runs in 2 games without him anyway. Cody Bellinger hit the 3-run homer that ended Boston, Ben Rice drove in a run, and Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and George Lombard Jr. all chipped in. The rotation is thinner than the lineup: Clarke Schmidt has been shut down for the year and Ryan Weathers' forearm kept him off the last roster. Tampa Bay is a modest home favorite, and that price was set before anyone knows whether Judge plays.
The Rays come in with more question marks than a 98-win division champ usually has. Shane McClanahan won't be on the ALDS roster. Griffin Jax left his last start with a lower-back contusion and is still among the 5 starters Cash is choosing from, along with Nick Martinez, Freddy Peralta and Ian Seymour. Rasmussen is the only Game 1 decision that's settled. The roster isn't due until Saturday's 10 a.m. deadline, so some of that will sort itself out before first pitch.
The bullpen is where Tampa Bay is short. Tyler Wells (forearm) has looked good throwing but is still on the IL. So is Garrett Cleavinger, and Edwin Uceta has been gone since summer. That puts more on Rasmussen to go deep, which he did against New York last time out, needing 114 pitches to do it. On the other side, Chandler Simpson's sore foot was feeling better as of Wednesday. If he's in the lineup, he gives the Rays the speed they've been missing.
These teams just played in New York last week. Rasmussen took the first game, and the Yankees came back to win the next 2, 9-2 and 6-4. The Rays split their final road series in Philadelphia and have been off since Sunday, so they're rested but haven't played in a while. The Yankees took a short turnaround after a sweep. First pitch is 6:30 PM ET at Tropicana Field.
ALDS Game 1: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays — Rasmussen Gets the Ball as Yankees Bring Their Wild Card Momentum to Tropicana Field | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
