New York lands in Kansas City at 31-22 but it doesn't feel like a first-place team's record right now. They've dropped 3 of their last 5, slipped behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, and the only reason this isn't an even uglier conversation is Judge's walk-off two-run shot against the Rays on Sunday. That homer doesn't erase an 11-game RBI drought or the .179 line over his last 15 games — but it does buy Aaron Boone another news cycle of cover.
The Royals are doing what the Royals do: 22-31 overall, last in the Central, and yet they've won 2 in a row heading into this one. Bobby Witt Jr. has been an MVP-tier monster since mid-April and just collected an AL Player of the Week. Vinnie Pasquantino is the wart — .202 overall and a horror show against lefties (.120/.170/.160) — but Will Warren is right-handed, so KC won't get to hide him in this one.
Speaking of Warren: 6-1 with a 3.61 ERA is the headline, the strikeouts are the story. He's punched out 7+ in five of his six May starts and is sitting at a 13.82 K/9 for the month. This is the kind of arm the Yankees were hoping they'd find when Max Fried went down with the elbow bone bruise and Clarke Schmidt parked on the 60-day. Without those two, every Warren turn matters more.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Dominguez (shoulder) could be ready for a minor-league rehab assignment during the first week of June, per MLB.com.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Stanton (calf) is slated to undergo imaging in the next week with the hope of being cleared to run, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India 2B — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Bubic (elbow) started a full throwing program Saturday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans SP — Ragans (elbow) struck out three batters and allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk across 4.1 innings Saturday in his rehab start with Triple-A Omaha.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Strahm RP — Strahm received an injection Monday to help with symptoms of right knee inflammation, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez RP — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
On the other side, Michael Wacha is in the best stretch of his Royals tenure. 2.70 ERA, 7 scoreless against Detroit on May 9, and a body of work that's quietly turned him into KC's most dependable starter while Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic rehab their elbows. A 2.70 ERA against this version of the Yankees lineup — Stanton out, Dominguez out, Judge cold — is a problem.
The market reflects it. Pinnacle has the Yankees at -143 on the moneyline and the run line at -1.5 (+111), which is closer to a coin flip than the team records suggest. The total of 9 makes sense too — two starters going well, both bullpens missing late-inning arms (Chivilli for NY, Estevez and Strahm for KC). If you're betting this game, you're betting which starter blinks first, not which lineup wakes up.
Bottom line: the Yankees are the better team and the favorite, but they're walking into a tough matchup at the worst possible time. If Wacha keeps doing Wacha things and Judge stays stuck, this turns into the kind of game that has Boone answering pointed questions in the postgame for the third week running.