This is the matchup the East deserves and probably the one nobody on either bench wanted in round two. The Knicks rolled through Atlanta in six — including a 51-point Game 6 that's now the biggest playoff win in franchise history — while the Sixers needed every ounce of seven games to bury Boston after going down 3-1. Both teams are walking in on three-game win streaks. Only one of them ran a Game 7 marathon 48 hours ago.
Joel Embiid is listed as probable with a right hip contusion after an injury scare against the Celtics, which is the only injury news that actually matters for this series. He didn't play until Game 3 of the Boston series following an emergency appendectomy earlier in the spring, and Philly has gone 3-1 since he came back. A probable Embiid is still an Embiid the Knicks have to plan around — but a probable Embiid coming off a hip knock on one day's rest in New York is a different proposition than a healthy one.
The on-paper fight is the point guard duel. Jalen Brunson is averaging 26.3 in these playoffs, Karl-Anthony Towns is chipping in 18.7, and the Knicks are putting up the second-most points per game of any team still alive (117.8) while shooting 38% from three. Tyrese Maxey is the obvious counter — he can change gears better than anyone Atlanta threw at Brunson — and how Philly chooses to chase him around Towns screens may decide the series. The early thinking is that if Mike Brown sticks with Towns as a facilitator, Brunson gets clean looks at Philly's drop coverage.
The number tells you the market believes this is a Knicks series until proven otherwise. New York is a 7.5-point home favorite at -288 on the moneyline, and Philly's implied chance to steal Game 1 sits under 30%. That feels about right for a team that just played a Game 7 trying to win on the road against a rested top seed — but it's also the exact spot where the Sixers tend to be most dangerous, because nobody outside of Philadelphia is picking them.
Bottom line: if Embiid is upright and moving, Philly has the best player on the floor and a real shot to flip homecourt before the series even unpacks its bags. If the hip is barking and Maxey has to carry it solo into the Garden, this could get out of hand quickly. Either way, Game 1 at MSG with both teams on heaters is exactly the kind of basketball the second round is supposed to deliver.