The schedule also favors Miami a little. The Heat don't fly anywhere between the Lakers game and this one, so they get a day off in the same city before playing a team that's 0-5 in its last 5. The Clippers also lost at home to a Toronto team playing without Kawhi Leonard, who was out for his reunion with his old team, per SI. Losing to a shorthanded Raptors team in your own building is a bad sign this early.
Ball security has been the Clippers' biggest problem. They came into the Toronto game leading the NBA at 21.0 turnovers per game. The Ticket noted that even a season-low 14 against Golden State didn't save them, because the Warriors made 22 of 49 threes without Stephen Curry or Draymond Green. When the Clippers do protect the ball, they've been giving up points elsewhere. They scored 87 against the Lakers, the same team that just put 138 on Miami.
Miami's issues are less about health and more about consistency. When the Heat offense works, it really works: they scored 129 at Atlanta and 145 against Indiana in back-to-back wins. Then they gave up 138 to the Lakers. SI's preview of the trip points to Pelle Larsson finding a rhythm, Giannis playing more off the ball and Bam Adebayo contributing on both ends. That version of the Heat can beat almost anyone on this road trip. The 3rd-quarter version from the Lakers game can lose to anyone.
That's what this game comes down to. Darius Garland and Kobe Sanders have to create enough offense to keep the Clippers close, and the Clippers have to take care of the ball against a Heat team built to make them pay for it. Miami needs to avoid the kind of quarter that buried it against the Lakers. A Heat win would leave them happy with the trip, and the Clippers would still be looking for their 2nd win.
