TLDR: Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo and still hasn't won a game. On Wednesday the Heat try again at State Farm Arena, against an Atlanta team that just watched Alperen Sengun do whatever he wanted inside.
Winless Miami, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, visits an Atlanta team missing big men Henri Veesaar and Gueye, a weakness Houston exploited twice. The Heat's losses have narrowed from 25 points to 4, but they have yet to close out a 4th quarter. The Hawks, now Jalen Johnson's team after the Trae Young trade, score in bunches when the ball moves. The game likely turns on whether Atlanta can hold up inside.
+Johnson running the offense, 16 assists vs Houston
+Routed Charlotte 128-81, a team that beat Miami
+Has topped 128 points in both wins
−Veesaar (ACL) and Gueye (foot) both out
−Sengun went 11-of-15 against the thin frontcourt
−Lost back-to-back games to Houston
Miami's 0-4 start comes with a footnote, and the footnote matters. The losses have gotten closer every time: 25 points to Minnesota, 17 to Detroit, then 5 at Charlotte and 4 to Dallas. Giannis has carried the scoring with 35 in the opener, 36 against Detroit and 29 against the Mavericks, so he hasn't been the problem. The Dallas game shows what has been. Miami led 84-83 after 3 quarters against a Mavericks team missing most of its frontcourt, lost the 4th 30-25, and walked off as the only fully healthy team on the floor with nothing to show for it.
Atlanta looks different this year. Trae Young is in Washington and Jalen Johnson runs the offense now. In the first meeting with Houston he had 26 points and tied his career high with 16 assists. Johnson led the Hawks again with 21 in the rematch, but most of those came at the free-throw line, and the Rockets won both games, the second 120-110. Atlanta is playing without Henri Veesaar, who tore his ACL and is expected to miss the season, and Mouhamed Gueye, who had surgery on a fractured left foot. Houston saw that and kept feeding Sengun, who scored 29 on 11-of-15 shooting.
That's the matchup to watch at 7:00 PM ET. Miami added Giannis and Bobby Portis over the summer, and the Hawks are shorthanded at exactly those positions. Atlanta has to show that Sengun's night was a Houston problem and not a sign of how teams will attack them all season.
Both teams have played Charlotte, and the results were very different. The Hawks won 128-81 in Charlotte. The Heat lost 115-110 in the same building, a game where Davion Mitchell scored 22. Atlanta also won 132-125 in Orlando to open the season, so this team can score in bunches when Johnson has the ball moving. The Heat haven't held anyone under 113, and they've allowed 128 or more twice.
The case for Miami is that the margins keep shrinking and it now gets a frontcourt that can't hold up physically. The case for Atlanta is that the Heat haven't figured out how to close games yet, and the Hawks scored 128 and 132 in their 2 wins. Atlanta also comes home from 2 straight losses to Houston, so both teams are coming in sore about something.
Heat vs. Hawks: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 28) — Winless Heat Bring Giannis to Atlanta's Short-Handed Frontcourt
