OKC won all 4 regular-season meetings by an average of 29.3 points, the largest intra-conference margin in the league this year. Now the Lakers head to Oklahoma City for Game 1 without Luka Doncic, who is still working back from the Grade 2 hamstring strain he suffered against this same Thunder team on April 2. The good news for LA: Jalen Williams is also out with his own hamstring issue, so at least the Thunder are missing an All-Star too.
- OutJalen Williams G — Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Lakers on Tuesday.
- OutThomas Sorber C — The Thunder announced Friday that Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout, NBA reporter Marc Stein reports.
This is a LeBron-carries-or-bust spot. James was the Lakers' best player in the Houston series, going for 26-9-8.5 on 45% shooting in the 4 wins and dropping 28-7-8 in the close-out Game 6. He is 41 years old and being asked to outscore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who just averaged 33.8 points and 8 assists on 55% shooting in a sweep of Phoenix. The math is not friendly.
OKC's depth is the real problem. Chet Holmgren is putting up 17 and 8.5 on nearly 59% from the floor in the playoffs, rookie Ajay Mitchell is chipping in 15 and 5 off the bench, and even down a starter the Thunder still won 4 in a row to close the regular season before sweeping Phoenix. The 15.5-point spread is enormous for a playoff game and the public is still leaning the favorite by ticket count.
If you're a Lakers fan looking for a reason, it is this: playoff basketball compresses things. A team can shoot 8-for-40 from 3, get a couple of LeBron heaters, steal a road game and suddenly we have a series. Down Luka, that's basically the only path. The line is begging you to think otherwise.
For Thunder fans the assignment is straightforward — protect home court, don't let the broken bracket make you sloppy, and get Williams healthy before this thing gets interesting. The total sits at 213.5, which feels low for a series that should feature a lot of OKC running in transition. Tip is at 7:42 local.