The Flagg injury is what this preview hinges on. He went down hard in the final minute of the 1st half at Indiana after Aaron Nesmith fouled him on a dunk attempt, and the MRI showed a mild left shoulder sprain. The Mavericks say he gets re-evaluated next week. That leaves Monday a real question mark, not a ruled-out, and Miami's defense looks very different with a second-year star in front of it than without one.
When Dallas is whole, it can hit hard early. At Indiana the Mavericks scored 44 in the 1st quarter and led 77-43 at halftime. Irving had 24 in his comeback from 19 months out with a torn ACL, and P.J. Washington pulled down 12 rebounds with Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama both out. Before that they lost 128-110 at Houston, so the first 2 games show both versions of this team.
The Dallas injury list is long and it hits the frontcourt hardest. Lively (foot), Aldama (knee), Caleb Martin (thumb) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) are all out alongside Flagg. That's a thin group to throw at Giannis, Bam Adebayo and Bobby Portis. Irving sat Saturday as planned rest on a back-to-back, and Monday isn't one, so the schedule at least gives him a path back.
Miami's latest loss looked a lot like the first 2. The Heat dropped a 115-110 decision at Charlotte against a Hornets team missing 4 rotation players. Brandon Miller scored 34 and Charlotte won the 2nd and 3rd quarters 65-44 before a 35-19 Miami 4th quarter, led by Davion Mitchell's 22 points and 10 assists, made the score respectable. In all 3 losses the Heat have fallen behind badly and then had to chase.
Tipoff is 7:30 PM ET. Miami has a rest edge, Giannis, and a home crowd waiting for win number 1. Dallas has Irving likely back, a team that already showed it can bury an opponent in a quarter, and a frontcourt that may not survive 48 minutes against Miami's size. The board hasn't opened yet. When it does, Flagg's status is the first thing to check.