The guard list is what makes this rough for Indiana. Haliburton, T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard (meniscus surgery, out for months) and Johnny Furphy (torn ACL, out for the season) are all guards, and all of them are out. Carlisle says McConnell is "getting closer" but has given no date. Until one of them returns, the Pacers will have to run their offense through guys who weren't supposed to be handling the ball much in October.
The injuries are showing up late in games. Indiana lost to Milwaukee and then blew an 88-75 lead entering the 4th against Philadelphia, getting outscored 39-21 in the final quarter at home. Our recap of that game said they faded late for the second game in a row. A thin rotation tends to run out of legs in the 4th, and Miami spent 4 games losing exactly those minutes before it finally held on in Atlanta.
Watch the boards. Against Atlanta, Giannis piled up rebounds against a Hawks frontcourt missing 2 bigs. If Zubac sits again, Indiana brings the same weakness into Miami. The Heat are still a 1-4 team that has allowed at least 113 in every game, and the Pacers already have 2 road wins, including a 136-point night in Brooklyn. Indiana can still score with the guys it has left. The bigger question is whether those guys can stay with a full-strength Heat roster for 48 minutes. Tipoff is 8:00 PM ET.