Milwaukee is in a different place. This is the Bucks' first season after trading Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the roster now runs through Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins and Myles Turner, with Kel'el Ware giving them a lift off the bench. Taylor Jenkins kept saying his team was "making progress" during the 0-3 start, and the problem was easy to see: Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia each scored at least 127 on them.
That's why the win over Indiana matters, and also why it shouldn't be oversold. Milwaukee erased an 11-point halftime deficit, outscored the Pacers 60-41 after the break, and held an opponent to 102 for the first time this season. But Indiana was on the second night of a back-to-back and played without Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard. It's a good sign. It's not proof yet.
So the matchup is fairly simple. Houston's spread-out shooting, plus Sengun working from the elbows, against a Bucks defense that had one good half of basketball in its first 4 games. Milwaukee's way to keep it close is the size of Turner and Ware. With Adams out, Houston's frontcourt is thinner behind Sengun, and if the Bucks can punish the Rockets on the glass and make them pay for loose ball security, this turns into a game. If they can't, Houston's depth should take it away in the 2nd half. Tip is 7:00 PM CT.