San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Spurs are road favorites in Game 4 of the West Semis, which tells you everything about how Game 3 went. Wembanyama hung 39, 15 and 5 blocks on Minnesota and joined Kareem, Hakeem and Shaq as the only players in playoff history to clear that 35/15/5 line. The Wolves now have to win at home to avoid the dreaded 3-1, and the market is not buying it.

Anthony Edwards is finally healthy — Game 3 was his first full run since hyperextending his left knee in the Denver series — and he still went for 32 and 14. The problem is everyone else. Jaden McDaniels was 5-of-22. Julius Randle was 3-of-12. If Minnesota is going to drag this back to a series, those two have to actually make a shot.

Minnesota also lost Donte DiVincenzo for the duration back in Round 1 — ruptured Achilles in the Game 4 win over Denver — so the bench shooting Chris Finch could lean on is just gone. That's a real factor against a Spurs defense that has Wemby roaming and erasing rim attempts at will.

The number is Spurs -4.5 with a total of 218, which is a respectful but not crazy line considering how Game 3 looked. Pinnacle has San Antonio at -184 on the moneyline, implying roughly a 63% chance the Spurs walk out of Target Center with a stranglehold on the series. Worth noting the Game 2 blowout was 38 points — when this turns lopsided, it gets ugly fast.

The script for Minnesota is obvious: Edwards has to be the best player on the floor for stretches, the Wolves have to make Wemby work on offense to keep him off the glass, and somebody outside of Ant has to hit a shot. The script for San Antonio is just keep feeding 7-foot-4. If the Spurs win this one the series is effectively over.

Sources