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Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets

Sat Oct 317:30 PM CTNBA TVHouston, TX
By JR·2 min read
Thunder(4-1)
Rockets(5-0)
Saturday 10/317:30 PM

TLDR: Oklahoma City's guard room is mostly in street clothes and Houston is short on centers, so Saturday, October 31 at Toyota Center comes down to which roster has more healthy bodies left. Two Western contenders, a lot of players missing.

SUN 11/01, 7:30 PMNBA TV
Thunder
(4-1)
LWWWW
Rockets
(5-0)
WWWWW

Oklahoma City arrives without Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and both its centers, coming off a 120-96 loss in Dallas where it ran out of gas after halftime. Houston has won without Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams and Marcus Smart behind Durant, Thompson and VanVleet, but it plays at Dallas the night before. Two key questions: whether Sengun is back, and how much Houston has left after a back-to-back.

Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell combined for 50 in Dallas
  • Held Denver to 84 and Clippers to 101
  • Plays nothing in between, fresh legs vs a back-to-back
  • Williams, Wallace, Caruso, Topic all out at guard
  • No Holmgren or Sorber; no true center available
  • Scored only 37 after halftime in Dallas
Houston Rockets
  • Durant, Thompson, VanVleet all healthy and scoring
  • Ran Milwaukee off the floor without any bigs
  • Sengun's back soreness projected as short-term

Start with the Thunder, because their injury list is the story of their October. Jalen Williams had surgery on a fractured left fibula and rebuilt ankle ligaments and won't be re-evaluated until near the end of the regular season. Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder and needs surgery. Both went down in the 108-101 win over the Clippers. Add Alex Caruso's ankle sprain, Nikola Topic's back, and Chet Holmgren and Thomas Sorber both out with knee problems, and Mark Daigneault is working with a roster nobody drew up in training camp.

The loss in Dallas showed what that costs. Ajay Mitchell scored 29 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 21, and OKC trailed by only 6 at the half. Then the legs ran out. The Thunder scored 37 points after the break and lost 120-96, their first loss of the season, while Cooper Flagg ran the floor with 26 points, 8 assists and no turnovers. With no true center and 4 guards out, Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell are carrying the whole offense, and 48 minutes is a long time to carry it.

Houston has its own absences and has won anyway. Alperen Sengun, the team's leading scorer at 24.5 a night, sat out the 132-100 rout in Milwaukee with low back soreness, and Ime Udoka said he hopes it costs "a few games at most." Steven Adams is out with a soleus strain Udoka called "a week or two," and Marcus Smart is out with a forearm injury. The Rockets beat the Bucks with no big men by running: Fred VanVleet scored 24, Amen Thompson 23, Kevin Durant 22, and a 34-14 2nd quarter put it away.

Here's what matters for scheduling: the Rockets play in Dallas on Friday before this one, which makes Saturday the second night of a back-to-back, and they're 5-0 as of Wednesday with that Mavericks game still to come. Houston beat Dallas 128-110 at home earlier this month. The Mavs just hit a season-best 16 threes on OKC, though, so Friday is no gimme, and whatever Udoka spends there decides how much Thompson and Durant have left for Saturday.

Oklahoma City Thunder
(4-1)
10/29L@Mavericks96-120
10/27WvsSuns125-114
10/25WvsClippers108-101
10/23WvsNuggets96-84
10/21W@Spurs116-104
Houston Rockets
(5-0)
10/29W@Bucks132-100
10/27WvsHawks120-110
10/25W@Hawks121-114
10/24W@Spurs114-110
10/22WvsMavericks128-110

The matchup is mostly about size. Neither team has its usual center: OKC lacks Holmgren and Sorber, Houston lacks Sengun and Adams. That turns it into a game of wings and guards, and on that front Houston is deeper right now. Durant, Thompson and VanVleet are all healthy and scoring. OKC has Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell and very little behind them. If Sengun is back by Saturday, the Rockets get a frontcourt edge the Thunder can't answer.

OKC's best argument is its defense. It held Denver to 84 and the Clippers to 101 before the injuries piled up, and Gilgeous-Alexander can win a game by himself in the 4th quarter. Houston's is that it has kept winning through its own injuries, and it gets to play at home after Friday's trip. Tipoff is 7:30 PM CT. Check the injury report before you get attached to either side, because it decides this game more than the standings do.

Thunder vs. Rockets: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 31) — Thunder Bring a Short Bench to Houston for Halloween