This series was supposed to be a Wembanyama coronation tour. Instead it's 2-2, the Wolves stole one in Minnesota after Wemby got tossed early in the second quarter of Game 4 for clocking Naz Reid in the throat, and now San Antonio gets him back at home as a 10-point favorite. The market thinks the Spurs reset the tone tonight. Minnesota would like a word.
Anthony Edwards is the reason this is a series. He hung 36 on the Spurs in Game 4, including 16 in the fourth quarter, and went 13-of-22 doing it. When Ant gets downhill against this Spurs perimeter without Wemby behind it, the rim protection evaporates. The Spurs need him to take 22 shots and feel every one of them tonight.
The other big variable is De'Aaron Fox's ankle. He's listed as questionable for Game 5 but dropped 24 in Game 4 alongside 24 from Dylan Harper and 20 from Stephon Castle, so the Spurs guard rotation has shown it can score with or without him at full tilt. Still, you'd rather have a healthy Fox than a hopeful one in a game this size.
- OutDonte DiVincenzo G — DiVincenzo will undergo surgery Sunday to repair a ruptured right Achilles tendon that he suffered during the Timberwolves Game 4 win over the Nuggets on Saturday.
- Day-To-DayDe'Aaron Fox G — Fox (ankle) is listed as questionable for Tuesday's Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Timberwolves.
- OutDavid Jones Garcia F — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Minnesota is also playing without Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the run after his Achilles tear in the first round, which thins out the wing rotation behind Ant and Jaden McDaniels. That's part of why the line sits double digits — Wemby back, home floor, Wolves shorter on shooting. It's also why a Minnesota cover would tilt the series feel hard going back to Target Center for Game 6.
The bet here is Wemby comes out angry, Rudy Gobert plays him to a draw on the glass like he did Sunday (13 boards), and the game is decided by whether San Antonio's young guards or Edwards in iso wins the late possessions. Spurs by 8 feels right. Wolves keeping it inside the number feels just as right. Pick your poison.