So the board has the Rams as a short home favorite in a game it expects to be high-scoring, and nothing about either team's September argues with that. Buffalo has given up 31 points twice already. The Rams lost their home opener 27-7 to the 49ers and have looked like a different team at SoFi since.
The Bills' schedule has been tough and their offense has handled it, putting up 36 at Houston and 41 on Detroit. The defense has been the issue, and losing to New England at home exposed it. Greg Rousseau (2 sacks against the Chargers) and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (an interception in the same game) have made plays, but this unit has been allowing points all year and is now running low on healthy cornerbacks.
Look at the back end. Christian Benford (toe) sat out the New England game. Dee Alford (ankle) and Te'Cory Couch (hamstring) both went down during it. Rookie Davison Igbinosun was already starting. Up front, T.J. Sanders (appendix) and Mike Danna were inactive and Ed Oliver was in and out with a knee injury. Putting that group across from Nacua, Adams and a quarterback who will throw it 50 times is the biggest storyline of the week.
The Rams have a thinner injury report, but not a short one. Myles Garrett is on IR after left-knee surgery that came with a 6-week timeline, so the pass rush that was supposed to bother Allen is missing its best player. Tight ends Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson are both out, which leaves the middle of the field to Tyler Higbee. Higbee had 8 catches against Denver, and 6 more went to Kyren Williams out of the backfield. Williams also scored both 4th-quarter touchdowns in Philadelphia, including the winner with 1:10 to go.
Kickoff is 5:15 PM PT. The Rams need to keep Stafford's turnovers from handing Allen short fields. The Bills need to find enough healthy defensive backs to cover. Both teams come out of Week 4 with real reasons for optimism and real holes, and on Monday night only one of those holes gets exposed.