Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Thu Oct 87:15 PM CTPrime VideoArlington, TX
By JR·3 min read
Buccaneers(0-4)
Cowboys(2-2)
Thursday 10/087:15 PM

TLDR: Tampa Bay is 0-4 and its starting quarterback is an undrafted rookie with 1 NFL start. Dallas just pulled off one of the wildest second halves of the season. On Thursday night they meet at AT&T Stadium, and both teams are working on 3 days of rest.

Week 5 · FRI OCT 9, 7:15 PMPrime Video

An 0-4 Tampa Bay team starts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in place of the injured Baker Mayfield, on the road against a 2-2 Dallas team coming off a last-minute 34-30 win in Houston. The game likely comes down to whether a thinned Bucs secondary can slow Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and whether Daniels can avoid the turnovers that cost Tampa against Green Bay. Both teams are on a Thursday short week, and Dallas is a heavy home favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Defense has held 3 straight opponents to 23 or fewer
  • Daniels ran for 55 yards in his first start
  • Every loss decided by one score or less
  • Daniels threw 2 picks that led to 10 Packers points
  • Morrison out, Winfield questionable in the secondary
  • Two starting guards inactive, offense stuck under 20
Dallas Cowboys
  • Lamb had 17 catches for 189 yards against Houston
  • Offense put up 399 second-half yards in Houston
  • Tyler Smith could return from IR at guard
  • Allowed 28, 34 and 30 in its last 3 games
  • Four defenders inactive, 2 safeties on IR
  • Short week after a draining comeback road win

The QB story runs one way. Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb, and Todd Bowles said he would miss a "minimum of three weeks." That puts Jalon Daniels in line to start again unless something changes before Thursday. Daniels' first start, a 17-14 loss to Green Bay, had a bit of everything: 19-of-27 for 148 yards, a touchdown to Kenny Gainwell, 55 rushing yards (a club record for a rookie quarterback) and 2 interceptions that the Packers turned into 10 points. Across the field is Dak Prescott, who threw for 335 yards and the game-winner with 40 seconds left in Houston.

Tampa's injury list is long, and it hits the secondary hardest. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison was inactive against Green Bay, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was questionable, and guards Billy Schrauth and Luke Haggard both sat. Ko Kieft, Rueben Bain Jr. and DeMonte Capehart were out too. Dallas has holes of its own on defense. DeMarvion Overshown, James Houston, Cobie Durant and Caelen Carson were all inactive in Houston, and safeties Jalen Thompson and P.J. Locke are on IR. The good news for Dallas: Brian Schottenheimer said guard Tyler Smith could come off IR for this game. Dallas is priced as a big home favorite, which matches the gap in records.

The scores tell you how each team is built. Tampa Bay has lost 4 straight by a total of 19 points, and it has scored 19 or fewer in each of its last 3. That's a defense keeping games close while the offense stalls. Dallas has scored 31, 34 and 37 in 3 of its 4 games. It has also given up 28, 34 and 30 in those same 3 games, so even its wins turn into shootouts.

10/04LvsPackers14-17
09/27LvsVikings16-23
09/20LvsBrowns19-23
09/13L@Bengals27-33
10/04W@Texans34-30
09/27LvsRavens31-34
09/20WvsCommanders37-20
09/14L@Giants20-28

Here's the matchup to watch. CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards against Houston, and the Cowboys gained 399 yards after halftime once they stopped forcing it. Now he faces a Tampa secondary that was down Morrison and wasn't sure about Winfield last week. George Pickens draws coverage away from him, and Javonte Williams just scored 3 touchdowns. That's a lot to ask of a banged-up back seven on a short week.

Tampa's way to stay in it is the formula that almost worked against Green Bay: shorten the game, let Daniels use his legs, and lean on Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr., who both practiced fully last week. Daniels' interceptions turned a close game into a loss. Against an offense that can score in bunches, giving away possessions is how 3-point losses turn into 3-score losses. The short week cuts both ways, though. Dallas had to bus home from Houston, and a rookie QB has 3 days to digest a new game plan.

Kickoff is 7:15 PM CT on Thursday, October 8, indoors in Arlington. If Daniels keeps protecting the ball and the Tampa defense keeps holding offenses near 20 points, this could be a long night for a Dallas team that hasn't won comfortably since Week 2. If the Bucs secondary has no answer for Lamb, the 0-4 start turns into 0-5 in a hurry.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys — Winless Bucs Bring a Rookie QB Into Arlington on a Short Week | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush