TLDR: Carolina has quietly become the team in the NFC South that has its act together, and Tampa Bay is 1-5 and patching a quarterback room with an undrafted rookie. Sunday, October 25, in Charlotte is a division game where both clubs seem to be heading in opposite directions.
Carolina (3-2) hosts Tampa Bay (1-5) in an NFC South game where the gap at quarterback is the story. Bryce Young is playing his best football, and the Bucs are on undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels while Baker Mayfield's dislocated thumb heals. Tampa has kept most of its losses within a score behind Bucky Irving, but a depleted secondary and 2 missing guards make it hard to see the Bucs leaving Charlotte with a win unless Mayfield is back.
+Hubbard ran for 120 yards; outgained the Eagles 399-222
+Has won 2 straight as of October 18
−Eagles win came without Hurts or Barkley
−Gave up 59 points to Chicago at home
−Tackle depth thin: Ekwonu out long-term, Freeling inactive
Everything starts under center. Baker Mayfield dislocated his throwing thumb in the 4th quarter of the Week 3 loss to Minnesota. The team called it a minimum 3-week injury, and as of this past week he still couldn't grip a football. That handed the job to Jalon Daniels, the undrafted rookie out of Kansas. He beat Dallas 24-16 in his debut run and then lost 26-19 to Pittsburgh. Across the field, Bryce Young just threw for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns, both to Tommy Tremble, in a 25-14 win in Philadelphia. That came 2 weeks after a 329-yard night against Detroit. Whether Mayfield is cleared for this one is the biggest open question of the week. Until Tampa says otherwise, plan on Daniels.
The rest of Tampa's injury list is ugly too. Antoine Winfield Jr. sat out the Steelers game, and so did cornerback Benjamin Morrison, both starting guards in Billy Schrauth and Luke Haggard, and defensive tackle DeMonte Capehart. Sean Tucker was inactive as well, so Bucky Irving keeps the whole backfield. Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards against Dallas, and his legs are the best thing a rookie quarterback has going for him. Carolina's problems are mostly at tackle. Ikem Ekwonu is a long way from returning according to Dave Canales, and Monroe Freeling (knee) missed the Eagles game. Books have the Panthers as a modest home favorite, which feels about right for a 3-2 team hosting a 1-5 one.
The Bucs' scores tell you what's wrong. They put up 19, 16, 14 and 19 in their 4 losses, and none of those games got away from them. Close losses come from an offense that can't finish drives. Carolina's offense is the opposite story right now. Chuba Hubbard ran for 120 yards and a score in Philly, and the Panthers outgained the Eagles 399 to 222.
Some caveats on Carolina, though. The Philadelphia team they beat was missing Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, so Tanner McKee threw 45 times and the Eagles had no ground game. This is also the defense that gave up 59 points to Chicago at home in the opener. Carolina's 34-3 win in Atlanta and the 32-26 win over Detroit were real, but this defense hasn't been airtight. If Irving gets going and Daniels can just stay on schedule, Tampa can keep it close the way it has all year.
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. The forecast is 64 degrees, mostly sunny, with 6 mph wind, so weather shouldn't be an excuse for either side. Watch 2 things this week: whether Mayfield throws at practice, and whether Freeling is back at tackle for Carolina. If Mayfield stays out, Tampa has to win this with Irving and its defense, and its defense is missing 3 starters in the secondary and the middle. If he plays, this matchup looks a lot closer.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 25) — Bryce Young's Panthers Host a Bucs Team Still Waiting on Baker · Barstool Bush
