Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Sun Nov 12:25 PM MTCBSDenver, CO
By JR·3 min read
Chiefs(5-1)
Broncos(5-2)
Sunday 11/012:25 PM

TLDR: Kansas City just went a full game without reaching the red zone for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career, and next up is a road trip to Denver. The Broncos are 5-2 and have won 3 straight, so first place in the AFC West is on the line Sunday, November 1.

SUN 11/01, 2:25 PM · Week 8CBS
LWWWW
Kickoff 62°

A 5-1 Chiefs team coming off a 20-3 loss in Seattle visits a 5-2 Broncos team that has won 3 straight, with the AFC West lead at stake. The game likely turns on whether Kansas City's injury-hit tackles and thin receiver group can protect and help Mahomes, and on whether Pat Surtain II and Jaylen Waddle are healthy for Denver. Kansas City is a short road favorite on a low total, so the board expects a close, grinding game.

Kansas City Chiefs
  • Mahomes' track record bouncing back from bad games
  • Beat the Chargers by more than Denver did
  • Karlaftis and Bolton defense held LA to 6
  • Never reached the red zone in Seattle
  • Both starting tackles hurt: Simmons on IR, Moore concussed
  • Rice out again; Worthy carrying the receiver group
Denver Broncos
  • Nix's running added 73 yards and a long TD
  • 3-back rotation of Coleman, Dobbins and Harvey all productive
  • Beat Seattle, the defense that just shut KC down

This one starts with the quarterbacks, and as of Monday they're headed in opposite directions. Mahomes went 19-of-33 for 165 yards and an interception in Seattle, a 58.3 passer rating, and the Chiefs finished with 213 total yards and 3 points. That ties the lowest output of his career as the starter. Bo Nix had his best game in a while against Arizona. He only completed 15 of 29 for 222 yards and a score, but he ran 7 times for 73 yards, including a 62-yard touchdown run, and that legs-first version of Nix is the one that's hard to game-plan for.

The problem in Kansas City goes deeper than one bad night. Josh Simmons went on injured reserve with a back injury and Jaylon Moore missed Seattle with a concussion, which leaves both tackle spots unsettled. Rashee Rice sat again with hamstring and knee trouble, so Xavier Worthy is the top receiver by default. The Chiefs also put Brashard Smith on IR and promoted Jaydn Ott from the practice squad to fill out the backfield. That's a lot of moving parts for a team heading into a road game in its own division.

Denver had its own scare late in Arizona. Jaylen Waddle got hurt on a reverse in the 4th quarter when he fumbled the pitch, dove on it and had Josh Sweat land on him. He didn't return, and he's questionable with a chest injury. Zach Allen came out with a hamstring issue around the same time and says he'll be fine. The bigger question is the secondary: Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga were both inactive in Arizona, and the Broncos still won by 14.

10/26L@Seahawks3-20
10/18WvsChargers22-6
10/04W@Raiders30-27
09/27W@Dolphins24-10
09/21WvsColts33-30
10/25W@Cardinals30-16
10/16WvsSeahawks17-14
10/11W@Chargers23-17
10/04L@49ers14-24
09/28WvsRams30-26

The common opponents are where this matchup gets interesting. Both teams beat the Chargers, Kansas City more convincingly at 22-6 than Denver at 23-17. Seattle is the bigger split. The Broncos beat the Seahawks 17-14 in overtime, and the same defense that Denver got past just held the Chiefs out of the red zone all night. Kansas City was 5-0 before that loss, but 2 of those wins came by 3 points, against Indianapolis and Las Vegas. This team has been living close for a while.

Denver's offense spreads the ball around. Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey each did something useful in Arizona, and Wil Lutz went 3-for-3 on field goals. On defense, Kris Abrams-Draine and Ja'Quan McMillian both had interceptions in the Seattle win, and that depth is how the Broncos have survived without Surtain. Kickoff is 2:25 PM MT at Empower Field. The early forecast is mid-60s and cloudy with light wind, so weather shouldn't be an excuse for either offense.

Mahomes has bounced back from bad games before, and the Chiefs are still 5-1. But this is the most banged-up version of the KC offense this season, going into a building where Denver has already won close games against good teams. If Surtain is back, Mile High gets a lot harder to throw in. If he isn't, the Chiefs will try to fix their passing game against Denver's backup corners.

Chiefs vs. Broncos: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Nov. 1) — Chiefs Bring a Bruised Offense to Mile High for First Place